Fertilizer will soon be in high demand. Most U.S. potash supplies come from Canada, but that could change depending on how future trade talks unfold.
“As of right now, we believe that potash is under the 0% tariff rate because it is considered a critical mineral, because it falls underneath our trade agreements for North America. If that’s the case, there’s no reason for our supply routes to change. Yes, Russia will remain number two, but it is a distant number two. Canada will continue to be the major player. Now, if tensions with Canada were to ramp up again and we start seeing more tariff rates on their potash, that is going to change things. We are going to see ourselves try to call more product from places like Russia,” said StoneX’s Josh Linville.
Fertilizer prices are tracking higher recently. Analysts with DTN found last week’s prices for UAN32 gained 10 percent. Potash gained five percent, but is still almost 10 percent off last year’s levels.
Transportation access, legal disputes, and fertilizer freight costs will directly influence input pricing and grain movement in 2026.
December 16, 2025 01:37 PM
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Fertilizer markets face uncertainty after President Trump raised the possibility of tariffs on Canadian imports, with analysts warning of supply and pricing risks. Josh Linville with StoneX provides a fertilizer industry outlook.
December 15, 2025 01:35 PM
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Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
December 11, 2025 01:16 PM
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Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
December 09, 2025 11:55 AM
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Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
November 21, 2025 10:30 AM
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Only properly documented, unexhausted fertilizer applied by prior owners may qualify for Section 180 expensing; broader nutrient-based claims carry significant legal and tax risk.
November 19, 2025 12:52 PM
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Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
November 19, 2025 12:31 PM
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Stagger buys and diversifies fertilizer sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
November 07, 2025 11:16 AM
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Recognizing phosphorus and potash as critical minerals underscores their importance in crop production and food security, providing producers with an added layer of risk protection.
November 06, 2025 03:40 PM
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