NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — A bigger Australian harvest is helping swell world grain supplies and weigh on prices heading into 2026. National production for the 2025/26 season is forecast at 64.2 million tons, up 5.2 million tons or 8.8 percent from last year, supported by widespread rainfall across key grain belts. Western Australia could record its second-largest crop on record, while Queensland and northern New South Wales continue to benefit from strong soil moisture reserves.
Improved wheat and canola yields, alongside expanded barley plantings, are driving the increase, according to Rabo Research. However, Australia faces tough export competition as large crops in Russia, the European Union, and the United States add to global supply. High carryover stocks in Australia and Canada are also limiting price upside, leaving domestic wheat values under pressure even as export demand stays firm.
Barley output is on track for near-record levels, putting more focus on export pace and feed grain use in domestic livestock sectors. Canola exports to Europe may soften with stronger EU production, though reduced sunflower output elsewhere and restocking needs could support non-GM canola prices. Chinese demand for Australian canola is expected to strengthen again in 2026, improving prospects for GM varieties.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Australia’s expanding harvest and global oversupply are keeping wheat and barley prices capped, though canola markets may hold firmer on shifting oilseed demand.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
February 02, 2026 12:13 PM
·
Winter Weather And Markets Reshape Agriculture Nationwide This Week
February 02, 2026 12:04 PM
·
Shrinking sheep numbers contrast with gradual goat expansion, signaling tighter lamb supplies but steadier growth potential for meat goats.
February 02, 2026 10:29 AM
·
The federal government’s status is far from the only factor moving the markets on Friday. Two critical reports released today on producer inflation and the status of the U.S. cattle herd are also top of mind.
January 30, 2026 12:51 PM
·
Record milk output looks strong today, but shrinking replacement numbers mean future supply adjustments could be faster and more volatile.
January 30, 2026 11:44 AM
·
Often overlooked, cotton wholesalers act as stabilizers during market stress, translating fragmented retail demand into workable production programs for mills and manufacturers.
January 30, 2026 08:00 AM
·
