Barge Markets Remain Volatile as Export Demand Builds

Strong export demand supports barge markets, but weather risks remain.

A towboat, known as a pusher, pushes barges full of cargo up the Mississippi River near downtown Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA_Photo by Matt Gush via Adobe Stock_828872155.jpg

A towboat, known as a pusher, pushes barges full of cargo up the Mississippi River near downtown Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Photo by Matt Gush via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Grain barge movement on the Mississippi River System is entering 2026 with strong export demand but continued weather-driven volatility that could keep freight markets unsettled in the months ahead.

In 2025, total grain volumes moving through the Mississippi River System rose 11 percent from 2024 — the largest since 2022 — supported by record corn exports.

Wheat exports through the Columbia-Snake River System climbed 23 percent, driven by stronger soft white wheat demand. However, soybean volumes on the Mississippi fell to their lowest level since 2021, and wheat volumes were the weakest since 2010.

Weather disruptions shaped much of the year. High water, flooding, low water, and ice accumulation created draft and tow restrictions during harvest. Spot freight rates reflected that volatility. St. Louis barge rates averaged $19.26 per ton in the fourth quarter. More recently, winter ice pushed rates near $25 per ton — more than 60 percent above the five-year average — while volumes temporarily dropped sharply.

Looking ahead, USDA projects 2025/26 corn exports up 15 percent and wheat exports up 9 percent year over year. Unshipped export balances are 20 percent higher than a year ago, signaling strong forward demand for river transportation once navigation normalizes.

Related Stories
Cattle markets are watching the Cattle-on-Feed Report for signs of tighter supplies, while USMEF warns limited China access is cutting producer profits.
Weather-driven transportation disruptions can tighten logistics, affect basis levels, and delay grain movement during winter months.
USDA Undersecretary Luke Lindberg outlines the Farm Bridge Assistance Program and responds to calls from lawmakers and ag leaders for more assistance and expanded trade opportunities for farmers.
Callahan is no stranger to agricultural trade and has been with the U.S. Trade Representative’s office since 2016.
Record ethanol production, coupled with stronger demand, supports corn use despite tighter margins elsewhere.
A new maritime biofuels coalition aims to position ocean shipping as a significant growth market for U.S. crops and waste-derived fuels.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 2026 agenda centers on labor stability, biosecurity, and economic resilience for family farms. Expanded DMC coverage improves risk protection for dairy operations facing tighter margins.
Agronomy experts explain why standing crop residue protects soil and reduces costs for crop growers, while shredding often yields little benefit at higher costs.
Freight volatility increasingly determines export margins, making logistics costs as important as price in marketing decisions.
China’s beef policy risk stems from domestic volatility, making export demand inherently unstable. Jake Charleston with Specialty Risk Insurance offers his perspective on cattle markets, risk management, and producer sentiment.
Larger grain stocks increase supply pressure, but strong fall disappearance — especially for corn and sorghum — suggests demand remains an important offset.
Record corn and sorghum crops boost feed grain supplies, while reduced soybean and cotton production tighten outlooks for oilseeds and fiber markets.