Barge Markets Remain Volatile as Export Demand Builds

Strong export demand supports barge markets, but weather risks remain.

A towboat, known as a pusher, pushes barges full of cargo up the Mississippi River near downtown Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA_Photo by Matt Gush via Adobe Stock_828872155.jpg

A towboat, known as a pusher, pushes barges full of cargo up the Mississippi River near downtown Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Photo by Matt Gush via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Grain barge movement on the Mississippi River System is entering 2026 with strong export demand but continued weather-driven volatility that could keep freight markets unsettled in the months ahead.

In 2025, total grain volumes moving through the Mississippi River System rose 11 percent from 2024 — the largest since 2022 — supported by record corn exports.

Wheat exports through the Columbia-Snake River System climbed 23 percent, driven by stronger soft white wheat demand. However, soybean volumes on the Mississippi fell to their lowest level since 2021, and wheat volumes were the weakest since 2010.

Weather disruptions shaped much of the year. High water, flooding, low water, and ice accumulation created draft and tow restrictions during harvest. Spot freight rates reflected that volatility. St. Louis barge rates averaged $19.26 per ton in the fourth quarter. More recently, winter ice pushed rates near $25 per ton — more than 60 percent above the five-year average — while volumes temporarily dropped sharply.

Looking ahead, USDA projects 2025/26 corn exports up 15 percent and wheat exports up 9 percent year over year. Unshipped export balances are 20 percent higher than a year ago, signaling strong forward demand for river transportation once navigation normalizes.

Related Stories
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
Strong rail demand and higher fuel costs raise transportation risk even as barge and export flows stabilize.
Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
Record milk output looks strong today, but shrinking replacement numbers mean future supply adjustments could be faster and more volatile.
Strong blending demand continues to support ethanol use even as production and exports fluctuate.
Eliza Petry joins the RFD News team with a strong connection to agriculture and a commitment to covering the people and issues that matter most to rural America.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Food demand is stable but price-sensitive across rural markets. For agriculture and rural communities, the important signal is not optimism — it is stability.
Stable blending demand continues to underpin corn use despite export volatility.
USDA headquarters downsizing reflects cost pressures and may reshape agency operations.
USDA Farmer Bridge Assistance payments could begin this weekend as producers face tight margins, shifting acreage expectations, cattle herd contraction, and growing pressure for a stronger farm safety net.
Delays on year-round E15 keep potential corn demand and fuel savings in limbo.
Higher energy costs ripple through local farm supply chains.