Barge Markets Remain Volatile as Export Demand Builds

Strong export demand supports barge markets, but weather risks remain.

A towboat, known as a pusher, pushes barges full of cargo up the Mississippi River near downtown Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA_Photo by Matt Gush via Adobe Stock_828872155.jpg

A towboat, known as a pusher, pushes barges full of cargo up the Mississippi River near downtown Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Photo by Matt Gush via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Grain barge movement on the Mississippi River System is entering 2026 with strong export demand but continued weather-driven volatility that could keep freight markets unsettled in the months ahead.

In 2025, total grain volumes moving through the Mississippi River System rose 11 percent from 2024 — the largest since 2022 — supported by record corn exports.

Wheat exports through the Columbia-Snake River System climbed 23 percent, driven by stronger soft white wheat demand. However, soybean volumes on the Mississippi fell to their lowest level since 2021, and wheat volumes were the weakest since 2010.

Weather disruptions shaped much of the year. High water, flooding, low water, and ice accumulation created draft and tow restrictions during harvest. Spot freight rates reflected that volatility. St. Louis barge rates averaged $19.26 per ton in the fourth quarter. More recently, winter ice pushed rates near $25 per ton — more than 60 percent above the five-year average — while volumes temporarily dropped sharply.

Looking ahead, USDA projects 2025/26 corn exports up 15 percent and wheat exports up 9 percent year over year. Unshipped export balances are 20 percent higher than a year ago, signaling strong forward demand for river transportation once navigation normalizes.

Related Stories
While agriculture doesn’t predict every recession, the sector’s long history of turning down before the broader economy
ARC-CO delivers the bulk of 2024 support, offering key margin relief as producers manage tight operating conditions.
USMEF’s Jay Theiler discusses his leadership role in representing U.S. beef and pork and provides an update on this week’s conference in Indianapolis.
As economic pressures continue to squeeze agriculture, ag lenders are signaling a more cautious outlook for farm profitability heading into next year, particularly among grain producers facing lower commodity prices and higher operating costs.
USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.
U.S. Trade officials announced new deals with El Salvador, Guatemala, Ecuador, and Argentina, as well as a steep reduction in tariffs on Swiss imports.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Slower grain movement may pressure basis, but falling diesel prices could help offset transportation costs.
Regional differences indicate that family ownership is universal, but farm structure and commodity mix determine the extent to which these operations drive agricultural output.
A new study found that retaining the EPA’s half-RIN credit protects soybean demand, farm income, and crushing-sector strength while preserving biofuel market flexibility.
Rising federal debt is increasing pressure on Washington to limit spending, which could tighten future funding and delivery for agricultural programs.
Freight Softens as Producers Plan 2026 Budgets Nationwide
“I’m not sure where this bridge goes,” trader Brady Huck with Advanced Trading told RFD-TV News earlier this week.