Barge Markets Remain Volatile as Export Demand Builds

Strong export demand supports barge markets, but weather risks remain.

A towboat, known as a pusher, pushes barges full of cargo up the Mississippi River near downtown Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA_Photo by Matt Gush via Adobe Stock_828872155.jpg

A towboat, known as a pusher, pushes barges full of cargo up the Mississippi River near downtown Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Photo by Matt Gush via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Grain barge movement on the Mississippi River System is entering 2026 with strong export demand but continued weather-driven volatility that could keep freight markets unsettled in the months ahead.

In 2025, total grain volumes moving through the Mississippi River System rose 11 percent from 2024 — the largest since 2022 — supported by record corn exports.

Wheat exports through the Columbia-Snake River System climbed 23 percent, driven by stronger soft white wheat demand. However, soybean volumes on the Mississippi fell to their lowest level since 2021, and wheat volumes were the weakest since 2010.

Weather disruptions shaped much of the year. High water, flooding, low water, and ice accumulation created draft and tow restrictions during harvest. Spot freight rates reflected that volatility. St. Louis barge rates averaged $19.26 per ton in the fourth quarter. More recently, winter ice pushed rates near $25 per ton — more than 60 percent above the five-year average — while volumes temporarily dropped sharply.

Looking ahead, USDA projects 2025/26 corn exports up 15 percent and wheat exports up 9 percent year over year. Unshipped export balances are 20 percent higher than a year ago, signaling strong forward demand for river transportation once navigation normalizes.

Related Stories
Waiting could risk leaving next year’s crop unprotected.
Michigan corn farmer and NCGA Vice President-Elect Matt Frostic will lead the task force. He joined us on Thursday to share his insights on the escalating corn crisis.
U.S. soybean farmers are growing increasingly frustrated by Argentina’s gains in Chinese grain contracts and Trump’s pledge of economic support for the South American ally.
The USDA is moving to close the farm trade gap through promotion, missions, and stronger export financing.
Midwest corn and soy producers are monitoring for disease and lower yields due to the ongoing drought over the last 30 days.
Industry-wide participation in SHIP enhances biosecurity and fosters global trust in U.S. pork, says swine health expert, Dr. Christine Mainquist-Whigham.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

With core input inflation still hovering high, growers and retailers should plan pricing and promotions with tighter margins in mind — target early sales, leverage bundle deals, and secure logistics ahead of peak Halloween demand.
The U.S.-China summit raises hopes for stronger exports and reduced barriers, but U.S. ag players should remain strategically cautious until concrete volumes and certifications materialize.
Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
Prepare for softer milk checks into winter, watch cull-cow values and timing, and stress-test cash flow as product prices recalibrate.
Expect incremental near-term lift for feed grains, proteins, and ethanol as tariff cuts and smoother approvals translate into real orders.
If confirmed, early Chinese buys tighten nearby Gulf/PNW capacity and could bump basis in export-oriented regions.