WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The USDA’s November WASDE report points to a well-supplied outlook across major U.S. crops, with corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton all showing comfortable production levels heading into 2025. The update reflects strong yields, steady acreage, and demand that remains firm enough to support movement but not tight enough to draw down carryout significantly.
Corn remains the most significant driver of overall supply. USDA trimmed yield to 186 bushels per acre and lowered production slightly to 16.8 billion bushels, but larger beginning stocks more than offset those reductions. Exports were raised to 3.1 billion bushels on record fall shipment pace, pushing total demand higher. Even so, ending stocks increased to 2.2 billion bushels, and USDA raised the season-average price to $4.00 per bushel.
Soybean supplies tightened modestly due to lower carry-in and a smaller crop. Production is now estimated at 4.3 billion bushels with a 53-bushel yield, down slightly from prior expectations. USDA trimmed exports by 50 million bushels to 1.64 billion as U.S. price advantages narrowed against Brazil and Argentina. Ending stocks slipped only marginally, but stronger prices led USDA to raise the season-average price to $10.50 per bushel.
Wheat posted one of the report’s biggest supply increases. A record all-wheat yield lifted production to 1.985 billion bushels, up 58 million. With domestic use unchanged, nearly all the added supply flowed straight into ending stocks. USDA lowered the season-average price to $5.00 per bushel, reflecting both stronger production and softer market expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
Cotton saw another sizable production increase as improved yields across most major states pushed output to 14.1 million bales — nearly 900,000 above September. USDA lifted exports to 12.2 million bales but raised ending stocks almost 20% to 4.3 million, generating a burdensome stocks-to-use ratio near 31%. The season-average upland price was lowered to 62 cents per pound as abundant supplies continue to weigh on the market.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
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