NEW YORK, N.Y. (RFD News) — As President Trump works to secure more potash supplies from Belarus, nutrient analysts remain skeptical of the plan.
Josh Linville at StoneX said major geopolitical challenges remain. He pointed to the amount of Belarusian potash historically supplied to the U.S. and the country’s current shipping limitations.
“When you look at the height of Belarusian potash supplies to the U.S. marketplace, and this was around 2017 and 2018 — 750,000 tons. That was when the world was normal, things were flowing as they were, and they only brought in three-quarters of a million tons. We use millions upon millions of tons per year, and Canada accounts for 90 percent of that. Then you got to look at where Belarus is today. They are landlocked. Normally, they would have moved that product through Lithuania to their deep-sea ports and around the world. That’s what they did for years and years and years.”
Belarus is landlocked and surrounded by NATO-member countries, which Linville said creates challenges for shippers in today’s geopolitical climate.
“They are hemmed in on the north, the south, and the west. The only route they have is to the east in Russia. Takes longer to ship it. It costs more money to ship it. We think that the channels probably cannot move Belarus’s normal flows just because Russia wants to move their own product, and the rail lines and all that didn’t exist for them to move normal amounts. So, they’re hemmed in.”
Meanwhile, DTN analysts found seven of the eight major fertilizer types are more expensive than a year ago. Anhydrous is up 22% since last harvest season, while DAP and potash are up 2%. UAN32 saw the lowest yearly gain at 1%.
