California could soon be the final state to approve the sale of E-15 biofuel, which could be a “Golden” lining for this year’s bumper corn crop, ready for harvest when low market prices are a big concern for producers.
Golden State lawmakers reversed course on E-15 this month, sending a bill to Governor Gavin Newsom’s desk to allow for sales to accomplish the Administration’s goal to reduce gas prices. According to AAA (on Sept. 9, 2025), a gallon of regular gas costs $4.63, which is more than a dollar higher than the U.S. national average.
While Gov. Newsom has yet to sign that bill, biofuel groups remain hopeful, adding that it would help absorb the surplus of low-cost corn about to hit the market.
“That adds another 500, almost 600 million gallons of new demand for American ethanol, when California adopts E15,” explained Troy Bredenkamp with the Renewable Fuels Association. “It’s 200 million bushels of new demand for new corn grind. So that is significant when you’re looking at one of the biggest crops, maybe the biggest crop in history, coming in this fall.”
Bredenkamp is also calling on Congress to settle the E-15 debate once and for all when it comes to year-round sales. Use of E-15 was previously banned during the summer months because it was believed to be more volatile in high temperatures, and there was worry it could contribute to smog and reduce air quality.
However, biofuel groups argue that science has disproved this theory. Arguing it is actually less volatile than standard gasoline.
A strong corn export pull is supportive of bids; soybeans need steady vessel programs or fresh sales to firm cash.
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Market analyst and friend of the show, Shawn Hackett, says Brazil’s shifting use of crops for biofuel production is a significant factor.
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Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss the implications for farmers.
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Chris Bliley with Growth Energy discusses ongoing concerns about U.S. ethanol exports and the expansion of market access promised under the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China.
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Rich Nelson, a commodity broker for Allendale Inc., joins us to break down what the U.S.-China trade agreement means for the ag economy.
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The U.S.-China summit raises hopes for stronger exports and reduced barriers, but U.S. ag players should remain strategically cautious until concrete volumes and certifications materialize.
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Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
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Expect incremental near-term lift for feed grains, proteins, and ethanol as tariff cuts and smoother approvals translate into real orders.
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