NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — China is still working to fulfill its current 12 million metric tons (MMT) soybean commitment to the United States. According to Reuters reports, Sinograin, China’s state stockpiler, purchased an additional 10 cargo loads of U.S. soybeans this week —around 600,000 metric tons — which brings its estimated purchases to between 8.5 MMT and 10 MMT since the trade truce in October.
Iowa State University Economist Chad Hart says, depending on where you look, you could get different totals.
“If you look at the Chinese data -- as far as U.S. beans that have hit their shores -- we’re still at zero. When I look at the weekly export sales data that the USDA is catching back up on, that would show that China has purchased about 4 million metric tons thus far, and while those haven’t hit the shore yet, they will be moving along that way.”
Hart said more data should become available this month, which should paint a clearer picture since the U.S.-China trade deal was announced by the White House last fall and sent the markets on a wild ride.
“The idea is we saw the rally before any purchases were made, but when the agreement was sort of announced, and now with each resulting sale, the market’s sort of discounting that along the way,” Hart said. “And I think it’s because the market is sitting here going, ‘There’s been an agreement. the agreement seems to be being held up here, but it also puts us still in a position to, you know, China agreed to purchase 12 million metric tons here for 2025, but that would still only be about half of what they usually do.” and so, hence the let’s call it, lack of excitement.”
There has also been some confusion around the deadline for those soybean sales to China. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told lawmakers in recent weeks that the 12 million metric tons must be purchased by the end of the growing season, not by the end of the calendar year. Greer estimates it could be as late as March before they hit that threshold.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is still working to catch up on overnight sales data after the government shutdown ended in November. The numbers show China has been present, but trader Darin Newsom told RFD-TV News that there are surprises in the data arriving lately.
“This is nothing unusual — we could see it in the market starting last Friday,” Newsom explained. “This is just the time of year that China does get some of its secondary supplies covered as it waits for its primary supplier … Brazil’s next crop. As for the entirety of 2026, I think the key here is, again, going to be these geopolitical events that continue to occur. I think it’s going to continue to provide support to the metals sector. And I think it’s going to make most other markets, most other market sectors, you know, questionable at different times.”
The department is getting closer to catching up on reports. This Thursday, the USDA will drop the backlog of export sales data from last week.
