Borrowing costs are at the top of farmers’ minds as they get ready to plant for the year.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell left interest rates unchanged last week. Economists say it is anyone’s guess where the year will go, but warn you need to be prepared.
“I wish we had a crystal ball to know what’s next, and I would say that what you don’t want to do is just cross your fingers and hope interest rates keep falling. Not doing anything is just as risky as taking an all-in position either way. So what we’ve seen a lot of people do is somewhere meet in the middle where they try to get to a risk rate neutral stance where half the debts floating, half the debts fixed. If rates go up, great, you have protection in place. If rates keep falling, great, half the debt keeps on floating down lower, too,” said Josh Cannington with StoneX.
Carrington says it is important to make use of market tools, like swap options, which could allow farmers to choose which risks they want to take.
China is making strategic moves by purchasing more soybeans from Argentina and may soon follow the EU and reopen its market to Brazilian chicken exports.
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Lamb prices have seen a surprising surge driven by a tight supply and increasing demand in non-traditional markets.
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Farmers should watch for soybean export rebounds with harvest, while corn and wheat shipments remain strong and sorghum demand struggles.
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Rollins says the new trade relationship with Taiwan, which is committed to buying a significant amount of U.S. soy, could not come at a better time for farmers facing financial strain.
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Farmers may benefit from higher turkey prices this holiday season, but risks from HPAI and limited poult placements could further strain the supply.
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Higher tariffs may shield some U.S. crops but risk retaliation, lost markets, and higher costs for growers. The WTO disputes highlight the fragile balance between trade policy, farm exports, and input supply chains.
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