NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Energy markets are sending conflicting signals to agriculture, with lower long-term fuel prices but continued short-term volatility in heating and fertilizer inputs.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s February Short-Term Energy Outlook (PDF Version) projects Brent crude oil averaging about $58 per barrel in 2026 and $53 in 2027 as global production continues to outpace demand and inventories build. Despite recent geopolitical disruptions, expanding output worldwide is expected to keep diesel and fuel costs generally softer over time.
Natural gas tells a different story in the near term. The Henry Hub price averaged $7.72 per MMBtu in January after winter weather tightened supplies. Storage levels are now projected to end winter about 8 percent lower than previously expected. Prices should moderate later as drilling increases, with averages near $4.30 this year and $4.40 in 2027.
U.S. natural gas production is forecast to grow 2 percent in 2026, while rising solar generation and modest coal use help meet expanding electricity demand from industry and data centers.
Lower propane prices are also expected as higher gas production boosts supply.
Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
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USDA’s steady yields and heavy global stocks keep grains range-bound unless demand firms or South American weather becomes a real threat.
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As economic pressures continue to squeeze agriculture, ag lenders are signaling a more cautious outlook for farm profitability heading into next year, particularly among grain producers facing lower commodity prices and higher operating costs.
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USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.
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AFBF economist Faith Parum breaks down the potential impact of the proposed policy change to allow year-round sales of E15 biofuel.
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