EIA Forecast Signals Mixed Energy Cost Outlook Ahead

Fuel costs ease over the long term, but fertilizer energy remains volatile.

energy pkg.jpg

Market Day Report

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS)Energy markets are sending conflicting signals to agriculture, with lower long-term fuel prices but continued short-term volatility in heating and fertilizer inputs.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s February Short-Term Energy Outlook (PDF Version) projects Brent crude oil averaging about $58 per barrel in 2026 and $53 in 2027 as global production continues to outpace demand and inventories build. Despite recent geopolitical disruptions, expanding output worldwide is expected to keep diesel and fuel costs generally softer over time.

Natural gas tells a different story in the near term. The Henry Hub price averaged $7.72 per MMBtu in January after winter weather tightened supplies. Storage levels are now projected to end winter about 8 percent lower than previously expected. Prices should moderate later as drilling increases, with averages near $4.30 this year and $4.40 in 2027.

U.S. natural gas production is forecast to grow 2 percent in 2026, while rising solar generation and modest coal use help meet expanding electricity demand from industry and data centers.

Lower propane prices are also expected as higher gas production boosts supply.

Related Stories
Researchers in Denmark and St. Jude Hospital submitted a new study for peer review providing new insight into how High Path Avian Flu (HPAI) H5N1 in dairy cattle differs from avian cases.
The State of Louisiana is known as a major wintering location for North American waterfowl. However, a new visitor — a species of Whistling Ducks hailing from South America — may pose a problem to native species.
Shaun Haney, host of Rural Radio Channel 147’s Real Ag Radio, joined us Friday on Market Day Report with an update on the important vote involving the use of ag machinery in Canada.
The meaning of a “double-fraction” clause and the impact on future oil and gas conveyances—that is the topic of today’s blog post by RFD-TV Agril-Legal expert Roger McEowen.
Researchers out of the United Kingdom are using gene editing technology to help make High-Path Avian Flu less of a threat to poultry.
Seven out of the eight major fertilizers saw recent price decreases. However, one key type of fertilizer bucked the overall trend with an 11-percent rise.
Researchers at the Boyce Thompson Institute have constructed the perfect watermelon—returning “lost” genes from the domesticated fruit’s wild relatives that improve both taste and resilience during the growing process.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The impacts of the government shutdown have reached commodity growers with crops to move, ag economists monitoring the harvest without key data reporting, and meat producers in need of new export markets.
In a statement provided to RFD-TV News, a USDA spokesperson reiterated President Trump and the USDA’s commitment to farmers in difficult economic times.
Industry leaders say $11 billion in new investments could turn the tide as dairy producers face shrinking margins and growing uncertainty.
Export Inspections In Bushels Show Mixed Momentum Patterns
Expect firmer shop prices, leaner inventories, and selective hiring in ag-adjacent businesses — plan parts, service, and financing needs earlier.
U.S. Farmers Face Shifting Harvest Pace, Basis, and Input Costs