Ethanol Exports Strengthen Market Access as U.S.-China Deal, Phase One Investigation Move Forward

Chris Bliley with Growth Energy discusses ongoing concerns about U.S. ethanol exports and the expansion of market access promised under the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production eased slightly last week, even as inventories and exports climbed, according to EIA data compiled by the Renewable Fuels Association. Output fell 1.9 percent to 1.09 million barrels per day — equal to 45.8 million gallons daily — but remained 0.8 percent above last year and 3.1 percent above the three-year average. The four-week average rate rose to an annualized pace of 16.7 billion gallons.

Ethanol stocks expanded two percent to 22.4 million barrels, running 2.7 percent above a year ago and 3.2 percent higher than the three-year average. Most of the build occurred along the Gulf and West Coasts. Gasoline supplied to the market — a proxy for demand — rebounded 5.6 percent to 8.92 million barrels per day, slightly trailing last year but still topping its three-year trend.

Net ethanol blending inputs held steady at 911,000 barrels per day, while exports jumped nearly 35 percent to 175,000 barrels per day, the highest since January. Analysts note the continued absence of imports for more than a year highlights the U.S.’s strong domestic balance and competitive export position.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Slightly lower output alongside stronger exports and inventories suggests a firming global ethanol market heading into winter.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert

The nation’s largest biofuel trade association, Growth Energy, is voicing support for the U.S. investigation into China’s implementation of the Phase One trade agreement, a move announced just days before renewed trade talks between President Trump and China’s President Xi.

Chris Bliley with Growth Energy joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss the ongoing concerns surrounding U.S. ethanol exports and market access promised under the Phase One deal.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Bliley shared what the industry hopes to see come from the investigation and how it could influence future trade policy. He also addressed the potential for renewed tension between the U.S. and China as the investigation proceeds, while highlighting new trade agreements announced by the U.S. with four Southeast Asian countries that could open new opportunities for American ethanol producers.

Related Stories
Export volumes remain positive year-to-date, but weaker soybean loadings and slowing wheat movement hint at early bottlenecks in global demand or river logistics. Farmers should watch basis levels and freight conditions as export competition heats up.
Industry leaders representing more than 40 nations gathered to discuss the future of ethanol and other corn-based products.
A fast-moving series of trade signals from the White House and key partners is resetting the near-term outlook for U.S. agriculture.
Stay alert for trade announcements—especially border reopening timelines, tariff threats, and developments in Brazil’s export flows.
Set targets and use forwards, futures, or options to manage downside while preserving room for rallies.
Bangladesh’s buying surge offers temporary relief for U.S. farmers facing weaker Chinese demand, highlighting how global politics can reshape export outlets overnight.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Bernt Nelson provides an updated outlook on the current U.S. cattle market.
Sen. Roger Marshall explains which types of beef are imported into the United States, how there’s room for new imports, and logical reasons for current high prices.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Credit stress is building for row-crop farms despite steady land values and slight price improvements.
The Lexington shutdown pushes national slaughter capacity utilization nearer long-run averages, underscoring how tight cattle supplies are reshaping packer operations.
Raulston Acres Christmas Tree Farm in Rock Springs, Ga., has been in the same family for three generations.
Reed Marcum started hosting a toy drive in 2015. Since then, he has distributed thousands of toys across his home state of Oklahoma and in Texas and Arkansas. Now serving in the Army, Reed’s family and local 4-H chapter are running the event.
RFD-TV Farm Legal and Tax Expert Roger McEowen explains the basics of Low-Risk Credit in Farming, and how an understanding of the farm credit landscape lets producers tactfully approach debt.
Mike Steenhoek, with the Soy Transportation Commission, shares his outlook on current grain stocks and transportation lines amid bumper crops filling bins across the United States.