NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. ethanol markets opened 2026 with mixed signals, as domestic production and blending slowed while export demand remained a clear bright spot. Weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, show ethanol production fell 2.0 percent to 1.10 million barrels per day in early January, slightly below last year but still well above the three-year average.
Domestic demand softened alongside lower gasoline consumption. Ethanol blending by refiners dropped sharply, hitting the lowest level since early 2023, while implied gasoline demand declined nearly five percent week over week. Ethanol stocks increased modestly, though inventories remain below both last year and the three-year average, suggesting supply is not burdensome.
In contrast, exports provided strong support. October ethanol exports surged 25 percent to a record 185 million gallons, led by Canada and by solid gains across Europe and Asia. Year-to-date ethanol exports are running 13 percent ahead of last year. DDGS exports were mixed, with steady demand from Mexico offset by weaker shipments to parts of Asia.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Export strength continues to underpin ethanol and corn demand, even as domestic fuel use shows seasonal softness.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
USMEF CEO Dan Halstrom joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report for his analysis on the U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement, which includes big bucks for U.S. Beef.
September 22, 2025 12:30 PM
·
Record U.S. sorghum crop faces weak demand as China slashes imports, while corn farmers warn of rising costs, shrinking margins, and global market pressures.
September 22, 2025 11:46 AM
·
Fewer cattle on feed suggest smaller slaughter numbers this winter, which could support strong prices if beef demand holds firm.
September 22, 2025 11:10 AM
·
Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.
September 22, 2025 10:52 AM
·
The USDA NASS report also confirms lower August placements.
September 19, 2025 03:36 PM
·
Ethanol producers face a widening opportunity window as aviation and marine fuel markets expand, with the potential to add billions in demand if policy and certification align.
September 19, 2025 02:42 PM
·
