Ethanol Output Rises While Stocks Steady, Exports Surge

Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.

corn crop aerial_adobe stock.png

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production jumped to 1.07 million barrels per day—about 45 million gallons daily—running ahead of last year and the three-year average according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Even so, the four-week average eased a touch, a reminder that plants are still pacing margins.

Inventories held essentially flat at 22.7 million barrels, with most regions drawing down while the West Coast built supplies to a 25-week high. Gasoline supplied—a proxy for driver demand—rebounded week over week, supporting blending, but remains below last year.

Refiners and blenders pulled in slightly less ethanol on the week, yet exports were the standout, surging to an estimated 138,000 barrels per day and helping move product with no imports reported in more than a year. Net result: more output, steady stocks, and stronger exports point to firmer plant demand into fall. Stronger plant runs are good news for corn demand and local basis.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
Related Stories
The Washington State Tree Fruit Association says crop quality looks promising despite ongoing drought conditions.
New Fed surveys show farmland values remain historically high, though some Upper Midwest markets are beginning to soften.
IDA Texas’s Cooper Little discusses producer response to New World Screwworm in Texas, ongoing coordination with animal health officials, and the steps being taken to manage and protect livestock movement across the region.
Producers growing multiple spring crops should compare CLIP with individual coverage increases and county-based supplemental protection.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Brazil Potash CEO Matt Simpson discusses global fertilizer security, the importance of domestic production, and Brazil’s push toward fertilizer independence, which could impact market competitiveness.
The DOJ is conducting a criminal antitrust investigation into major beef processors, following years of concern over market concentration.
Commercial performance will determine whether the specialty sorghum market can expand across poultry-producing regions.
Improved coffee output could strengthen the U.S. supply, but input costs and weather risks keep the outlook uncertain.
Estimates for 2026 harvested crops remain early. Corn and sorghum are below their reference prices, while wheat and soybeans are above them.
Markets Analysts and Livestock Experts Say Screwworm Adds Costs for Producers, Not Food Safety Risks