Ethanol Output Rises While Stocks Steady, Exports Surge

Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.

corn crop aerial_adobe stock.png

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production jumped to 1.07 million barrels per day—about 45 million gallons daily—running ahead of last year and the three-year average according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Even so, the four-week average eased a touch, a reminder that plants are still pacing margins.

Inventories held essentially flat at 22.7 million barrels, with most regions drawing down while the West Coast built supplies to a 25-week high. Gasoline supplied—a proxy for driver demand—rebounded week over week, supporting blending, but remains below last year.

Refiners and blenders pulled in slightly less ethanol on the week, yet exports were the standout, surging to an estimated 138,000 barrels per day and helping move product with no imports reported in more than a year. Net result: more output, steady stocks, and stronger exports point to firmer plant demand into fall. Stronger plant runs are good news for corn demand and local basis.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
Related Stories
Laura Priest with the Center for Rural Affairs joins us to discuss solar development trends and opportunities for agriculture and renewable energy production to coexist.
Kansas farmer and friend of RFD-TV John Jenkinson joins us to discuss wheat crop conditions, regional variability, producer financial concerns, and the outlook for the growing season across Kansas.
StoneX Director of Fertilizer, Josh Linville, joins us to discuss fertilizer market trends and risk management strategies to navigate an uncertain farm economy and fluctuating agricultural input costs.
Panama matters to agriculture as both a freight corridor and a potential future market for U.S. ethanol.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Producers using farm entities should review ownership, labor contributions, and FSA paperwork before September 15.
Ethanol and feed coproduct exports remain strong outlets for corn demand, even after April’s pullback.
Trade estimates point to only modest changes in U.S. grain ending stocks ahead of USDA’s June 11 WASDE report.
Farmers may need flexible marketing plans as tighter supplies and uncertain demand heighten price risks for corn and soybeans.
Global fiber demand is growing, but cotton producers benefit only when cotton gains value and competes for market share.
USDA raised exports by $2.5 billion from February, while imports are forecast at $205.5 billion. The resulting $29 billion agricultural trade deficit remains a reminder that higher shipments alone do not resolve trade pressure.