Ethanol Output Slips as Demand and Stocks Shift

Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol producers saw a noticeable slowdown last week, a signal that fuel demand and blending trends remain uneven heading into winter. The latest EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association shows production falling 4.3% to 1.08 million barrels per day — lower than a year ago but still slightly above the three-year average. The four-week production pace held steady at 1.10 million b/d, equal to a 16.9-billion-gallon annualized rate.

Stocks tightened overall, dipping 1.9% to 22.2 million barrels, with inventories shrinking in every region except the East Coast and the Rockies. Gasoline supplied — a key proxy for consumer demand — rose to a 10-week high of 9.03 million b/d, though still trailing last year by nearly 4%. Meanwhile, refiner-blender net inputs of ethanol slipped 1.0% to a five-week low, marking slightly weaker domestic blending activity.

Exports were the week’s standout, jumping nearly 47% to an estimated 157,000 b/d — the strongest signal of external demand and the highest in more than a year. With no recent imports reported, the export bump helped offset softer domestic movement.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Richard Gupton says reliable roads, bridges and rail systems remain essential for ag retailers and the broader farm supply chain.
The dairy industry continues adapting to changing consumer habits and evolving labor technology.
The pricing signals come as biofuel and corn groups continue to press Congress for permanent nationwide E15 access.
The proposed merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern would create the nation’s first transcontinental railroad connecting the East and West coasts under a single carrier.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

USDA approves disaster aid for Pennsylvania orchard and specialty crop growers after April freezes caused major crop damage statewide.
Applications are open through July 27, 2026, on Grants.gov.
Total red meat supplies were up 4 percent from March but down 4 percent from April 2025.
The risk is prolonged crop weakness. Stable farmland values remain critical if losses continue.
Year-to-date red meat production is down 2 percent, with beef lower and pork higher.
For producers, demand is strong, but drought, disease, and costs still shape supply.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.