NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol producers saw a noticeable slowdown last week, a signal that fuel demand and blending trends remain uneven heading into winter. The latest EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association shows production falling 4.3% to 1.08 million barrels per day — lower than a year ago but still slightly above the three-year average. The four-week production pace held steady at 1.10 million b/d, equal to a 16.9-billion-gallon annualized rate.
Stocks tightened overall, dipping 1.9% to 22.2 million barrels, with inventories shrinking in every region except the East Coast and the Rockies. Gasoline supplied — a key proxy for consumer demand — rose to a 10-week high of 9.03 million b/d, though still trailing last year by nearly 4%. Meanwhile, refiner-blender net inputs of ethanol slipped 1.0% to a five-week low, marking slightly weaker domestic blending activity.
Exports were the week’s standout, jumping nearly 47% to an estimated 157,000 b/d — the strongest signal of external demand and the highest in more than a year. With no recent imports reported, the export bump helped offset softer domestic movement.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.
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