NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. ethanol markets softened in mid-January as production declined and inventories climbed, signaling weaker near-term demand even as output remained historically strong. New data show pressure building on margins as gasoline consumption slowed sharply.
Ethanol production fell 6.4 percent to 1.12 million barrels per day for the week ending January 16. Despite the weekly drop, output was still 1.8 percent higher than a year ago and nearly 15 percent above the three-year average. The four-week average production rate edged higher to an annualized 17.42 billion gallons, underscoring continued run strength.
Inventories increased 5.2 percent to 25.7 million barrels, the highest level in 40 weeks. Stocks built across most regions and now sit slightly above the three-year average, adding to near-term supply pressure.
Demand signals weakened. Gasoline supplied fell 5.7 percent to a three-year low, pulling implied ethanol demand lower even as refiner and blender ethanol use rose modestly. Exports provided a bright spot, surging more than 80 percent week over week.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Higher livestock prices reflect resilient demand, even as disease and herd shifts reshape 2026 supply expectations.
February 10, 2026 04:11 PM
·
Kevin Charleston of Specialty Risk Insurance discusses the importance of grain bin safety and joint efforts with Nationwide to provide farmers and first responders with access to critical, life-saving rescue tubes.
February 10, 2026 03:57 PM
·
RealAg Radio host Sean Haney outlines the Trump Administration’s current trade priorities and what meaningful market expansion looks like for farmers.
February 10, 2026 03:08 PM
·
USDA’s February WASDE report, analysts expect minimal price movement as grain stocks remain steady. Traders weigh renewed Chinese soybean purchases, South American weather, acreage shifts, and upcoming USMCA trade talks.
February 10, 2026 01:11 PM
·
A transition from traditional, technology-specific subsidies toward a performance-based, technology-neutral framework
February 10, 2026 08:00 AM
·
Producers across the country spent the week balancing spring planning with tight margins and uneven moisture outlooks. Input purchasing stayed cautious, while marketing and cash-flow decisions remained front and center for many operations.
February 09, 2026 03:17 PM
·
