Ethanol Production Falls While Demand and Exports Shift

Lower U.S. ethanol production and stocks may support ethanol prices while strong export demand continues to support ethanol and corn markets.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. ethanol production declined last week while demand softened, even as exports and blending activity showed signs of strength. Data from the Energy Information Administration shows production dropped 3.7 percent to 1.08 million barrels per day, the lowest weekly output since January.

Despite the weekly decline, production remained 1.1 percent higher than a year ago and above the three-year average. The four-week average also slipped slightly to 1.10 million barrels per day, reflecting a modest pullback in overall output levels.

Ethanol inventories tightened, falling 4.3 percent to 26.0 million barrels, with stock declines reported across nearly all regions. At the same time, gasoline demand — a key indicator for ethanol use — dropped 2.7 percent to a four-week low, though it remained above year-ago levels.

Refiner and blender inputs increased 1.6 percent to a 14-week high, signaling continued strength in blending. Ethanol exports also rose 3.4 percent, extending a trend of solid international demand.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower production and stocks may support ethanol prices.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Ethanol Exports Remain Strong Despite February Decline

U.S. ethanol exports eased slightly in February but remained historically strong. Shipments totaled 209.9 million gallons, down 1 percent from January but still 36 percent above last year.

Canada remained the top buyer, though volumes dropped 12 percent to a 10-month low. The European Union surged to a record 49.8 million gallons, led by strong demand from the Netherlands. India also increased purchases sharply, while Brazil pulled back from January levels but still exceeded last year’s pace.

Exports were broadly distributed across multiple markets, including Colombia, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and South Korea. Year-to-date exports reached 421.9 million gallons, up 25 percent from the same period last year. Imports into the U.S. remained minimal.

Dried distillers’ grains (DDGS) exports declined 9 percent in February. Lower shipments to Mexico drove much of the drop, while demand improved in South Korea, Indonesia, and Morocco. Year-to-date DDGS exports remain strong, up 16 percent from last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong export demand continues supporting ethanol and corn markets.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Lewie Pugh, with the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report to share his perspective on what the bill could mean for truckers.
Ohio AgNet’s Dusty Sonnenberg takes us up in the cab with a popcorn farmer bringing in this year’s haul.
Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Monday, Nov. 10, 2025.
Congressman Blake Moore of Utah discusses the bill’s potential to promote both economic growth and healthier forests on this week’s Champions of Rural America.
Mike Newland with the Propane Education & Research Council shares how producers can prepare for winter weather and the benefits of propane.
Distillers dried grains (DDG) values follow corn and soybean meal trends, with ethanol grind and feed demand shaping costs into early 2026.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Expect incremental near-term lift for feed grains, proteins, and ethanol as tariff cuts and smoother approvals translate into real orders.
If confirmed, early Chinese buys tighten nearby Gulf/PNW capacity and could bump basis in export-oriented regions.
Trade pacts with Malaysia and Cambodia unlock tariff-free and preferential lanes for key U.S. farm goods, expanding long-term demand in Southeast Asia.
The review signals renewed scrutiny of China’s agricultural trade pledges and could reshape farm export opportunities depending on its outcome.
The U.S.-Japan tech pact signals long-term investment in bio-innovation, connectivity, and secure supply chains — all of which can strengthen rural manufacturing, ag exports, and digital infrastructure critical to the next generation of farm productivity.
Export volumes remain positive year-to-date, but weaker soybean loadings and slowing wheat movement hint at early bottlenecks in global demand or river logistics. Farmers should watch basis levels and freight conditions as export competition heats up.