Ethanol Production Rebounds as Demand Signals Turn Mixed

Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production moved higher late in December, offering continued support for corn demand even as fuel consumption softened at year’s end. Output rebounded to 1.12 million barrels per day during the week ending December 26, equivalent to 47.0 million gallons daily, according to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association. Production ran slightly above last year and well ahead of the three-year average, reinforcing a historically strong grind pace.

Despite the rebound, inventories continued to build. Ethanol stocks rose to 22.9 million barrels, driven primarily by Midwest increases, though total stocks remained below both last year and longer-term averages. That suggests supply is growing but not yet burdensome.

Gasoline supplied — a proxy for ethanol blending demand — declined week over week, reflecting seasonal travel slowdowns. However, demand remained solid compared to both last year and the three-year average, signaling underlying strength rather than demand erosion. Refiner and blender ethanol usage also stayed above historical norms despite a modest weekly pullback.

Exports cooled sharply after setting a recent record, but overseas shipments remain historically strong, helping balance domestic supply.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Texas Cattle Feeders Association Chairman Robby Kirkland explains how the ongoing U.S.-Mexico border closure impacts feed yards that rely on Mexican cattle due to the New World Screwworm.
While the U.S.-China framework for soybean trade is in place, Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs tells us he will believe it when he sees it.
Global nitrogen and phosphate prices remain high despite improved supply fundamentals, with limited Chinese exports and stronger fall applications tightening availability.
Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.
The Court may limit emergency tariff powers, complicating a key bargaining tool; ag could see shifts in input costs and export dynamics as China, Brazil, and India talks evolve.
U.S. sugar producers and processors should brace for price pressure and challenging export logistics with global sugar supply ramping up — driven by Brazil, India, and Thailand — especially at the raw processing level.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Persistently low Mississippi River levels are turning logistics challenges into pricing risks — tightening margins for grain producers and exporters across the heartland.
The WASDE/Crop Production combo will be the first full read on supply, demand, and yield that could move basis and hedging plans since the government shutdown more than a month ago.
A rescheduled WASDE, China’s soybean squeeze, barge bottlenecks, and premium beef demand all collide this week — with cash decisions, basis, and risk plans on the line.
China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
America’s love for burgers depends on open markets. Without lean beef imports, prices would skyrocket, crushing demand and destabilizing the beef industry.
High milk production and soft retail demand are squeezing prices and margins — making careful feed and risk management essential through year-end.