WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD News) — U.S. farm profits are forecast to decline in 2026 even as federal payments rise sharply. USDA projects net farm income at $158.4 billion, down 2.6 percent from 2025 and 5.5 percent after adjusting for inflation.
Direct government payments are forecast at $47.4 billion, up nearly 70 percent from last year. Higher commodity-program payments and continued supplemental and disaster assistance account for most of the increase.
Production expenses are expected to climb 4.5 percent to $492.8 billion. Fertilizer expenses are forecast to be 15.3 percent higher, while fuel and oil costs are forecast to jump nearly 29 percent.
Crop receipts are projected higher, led by corn, soybeans and cotton. Cattle receipts also rise, but milk and hog receipts decline as animal-sector returns weaken overall.
Despite the inflation-adjusted decline, USDA says net farm income remains above its 20-year average. However, rising costs and heavy reliance on government support show continued financial pressure across agriculture.
