Farmer Sentiment Rises As Cost Concerns Continue Climbing

CME Group Executive Director of Ag Research Fred Seamon discusses the recent rise in farmer sentiment highlighted in the March Ag Economy Barometer report.

1_national-ag-day_white house.png

President Donald Trump addressing farmers and ranchers on National Agriculture Day. (2026)

The White House

WEST LAFAYETTE, INDIANA (RFD NEWS)Farmer sentiment improved in March, but rising input costs remain a growing concern. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer increased to 127, up from 116 in February, reflecting stronger expectations for future conditions.

The improvement was driven largely by a jump in the Future Expectations Index, which rose 14 points. The Current Conditions Index also increased, though at a slower pace. Even with the gain, sentiment remains below levels seen earlier this year.

Concerns about input costs intensified, with 46 percent of producers identifying high input costs as their biggest issue, up from the previous month. At the same time, more farmers said the U.S. economy is headed in the right direction and expect farmland values to increase over the next five years.

Financial outlooks remain mixed. Only a small percentage of producers plan to increase machinery purchases, while expectations for farm performance over the next year are split between improvement and decline.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Optimism is improving, but cost pressures remain a concern.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Farmer sentiment is improving despite ongoing economic challenges and input cost concerns. The latest Ag Economy Barometer rose 11 points from the previous month, signaling a shift in outlook across the agricultural sector.

CME Director of Agriculture Research Fred Seamon joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report for a closer look at the report, providing his overall takeaways from the Ag Economy Barometer’s March report and what it may signal for farmer confidence moving forward.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Seamon discusses what contributed to the latest increase in the barometer and whether the rise came as a surprise given current market conditions. He also highlights key findings from this month’s survey on inflation and interest rate expectations, offering insight into how producers are viewing the broader economic environment.

The barometer tracks whether farmers believe the U.S. is headed in the “right direction,” and Seamon points out notable changes in sentiment on that front — with 65 percent of respondents agreeing. He also
Seamon notes that farmers were particularly optimistic about market opportunities in leasing farmland and solar energy production.

Related Stories
Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.
Cotton demand depends on demonstrating performance and reliability buyers can rely on, not messaging alone.
Read the full press release published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A look at the legislative year ahead as lawmakers return to Washington with a slate of trade concerns to tackle in 2026—from new Chinese tariffs on beef imports to the USMCA review this summer.
Shaun Haney, Host of RealAg Radio on Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147, joined us with his 2026 cattle market outlook and insights on beef prices.
Farmer Bridge Assistance payments provide immediate balance-sheet support heading into 2026, but remain a short-term bridge rather than a substitute for long-term market recovery.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Rising production underscores the importance of marketing discipline and margin protection as milk supplies expand.
Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-IA, details how the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” Act (OBBBA) supports farmers, biofuels, and rural communities with tax breaks, crop insurance relief, and ag infrastructure.
Jake Charleston of Specialty Risk Insurance shares risk-reduction strategies to help cattle producers prepare for a successful year ahead.
Oregon FFA CEO Kjer Kizer discusses the proposed budget reductions, potential consequences, and the importance of protecting learning opportunities for students interested in agriculture.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains why the 2026 USMCA review could directly affect dairy access, produce competition, and export reliability for U.S. farmers and ranchers.
Farms and major food companies use AI to improve efficiency and forecast demand. Still, developers said that training AI for different uses is only possible with support from knowledgeable workers.