Farmer Sentiment Rises As Cost Concerns Continue Climbing

CME Group Executive Director of Ag Research Fred Seamon discusses the recent rise in farmer sentiment highlighted in the March Ag Economy Barometer report.

1_national-ag-day_white house.png

President Donald Trump addressing farmers and ranchers on National Agriculture Day. (2026)

The White House

WEST LAFAYETTE, INDIANA (RFD NEWS)Farmer sentiment improved in March, but rising input costs remain a growing concern. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer increased to 127, up from 116 in February, reflecting stronger expectations for future conditions.

The improvement was driven largely by a jump in the Future Expectations Index, which rose 14 points. The Current Conditions Index also increased, though at a slower pace. Even with the gain, sentiment remains below levels seen earlier this year.

Concerns about input costs intensified, with 46 percent of producers identifying high input costs as their biggest issue, up from the previous month. At the same time, more farmers said the U.S. economy is headed in the right direction and expect farmland values to increase over the next five years.

Financial outlooks remain mixed. Only a small percentage of producers plan to increase machinery purchases, while expectations for farm performance over the next year are split between improvement and decline.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Optimism is improving, but cost pressures remain a concern.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Farmer sentiment is improving despite ongoing economic challenges and input cost concerns. The latest Ag Economy Barometer rose 11 points from the previous month, signaling a shift in outlook across the agricultural sector.

CME Director of Agriculture Research Fred Seamon joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report for a closer look at the report, providing his overall takeaways from the Ag Economy Barometer’s March report and what it may signal for farmer confidence moving forward.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Seamon discusses what contributed to the latest increase in the barometer and whether the rise came as a surprise given current market conditions. He also highlights key findings from this month’s survey on inflation and interest rate expectations, offering insight into how producers are viewing the broader economic environment.

The barometer tracks whether farmers believe the U.S. is headed in the “right direction,” and Seamon points out notable changes in sentiment on that front — with 65 percent of respondents agreeing. He also
Seamon notes that farmers were particularly optimistic about market opportunities in leasing farmland and solar energy production.

Related Stories
Mike Knotts with the Tennessee Electric Cooperative Association joined us with the latest on storm impacts, power restoration, and safety considerations following the ice storm.
Brooks York with AgriSompo joined us with his outlook on crop insurance and risk management following the recent winter storm that tore through most of the United States, including the Midwest.
Meat stocks rose seasonally but remain below last year overall, while tighter butter inventories could support dairy prices, and belly stocks warrant close watch for pork markets.
Payment totals alone do not show financial stress — production costs and net losses complete the picture.
Year-round E15 remains on the table, but procedural caution and competing regional interests pushed action into a slower, negotiated path.
A mid-January winter storm delivered snow, ice, and extreme cold to a broad swath of the U.S., disrupting transportation, stressing livestock systems, and adding cost and complexity to winter farm operations as producers look toward spring.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Marilyn Schlake with the UNL Department of Agricultural Economics joined us for a closer look at the evolving role of livestock sale barns.
Rail continues to carry a larger share of the grain load, increasing sensitivity to rail capacity, labor, and pricing conditions.
Texas Farm Bureau President Russell Boening joined us with the latest update on storm conditions and impacts across the state.
Heavier weights and strong late-year slaughter supported December production, but lower annual totals highlight ongoing supply tightness heading into 2026.
Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.
Rising import pressure and tougher export competition are likely to persist into 2026, supporting domestic supplies while capping export growth.