Input costs are still a big issue for farmers, an issue that has been around for several years now. This year, fertilizer costs are expected to be around 40 percent of the budget for corn growers.
Researchers at the University of Illinois say that number is closer to 28 percent for soybean growers. Over the last quarter century, they found that the global fertilizer market has expanded, with countries like China, Russia, Canada, and the United States becoming major fertilizer suppliers.
Most of these, U.S. included, rely on imports to meet our own fertilizer needs. Market analysts say it is important for farmers to understand the structure of the fertilizer market, as well as the risks.
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Only properly documented, unexhausted fertilizer applied by prior owners may qualify for Section 180 expensing; broader nutrient-based claims carry significant legal and tax risk.
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
Stagger buys and diversifies fertilizer sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
Recognizing phosphorus and potash as critical minerals underscores their importance in crop production and food security, providing producers with an added layer of risk protection.
Global nitrogen and phosphate prices remain high despite improved supply fundamentals, with limited Chinese exports and stronger fall applications tightening availability.
Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
