Analysts are watching moves out of Asia, particularly with fertilizer.
While the U.S. has not imported any from China in years, they warn China’s trade policies could still be a factor in global prices. U.S. farmers have been looking at potential trade talks as a way to ease global fertilizer prices. Still, industry analysts say China has already pulled back from exporting, with or without tariffs.
“There were tariffs put into place on Chinese fertilizers during the first Trump administration, and we saw those import flows effectively go to zero. So, from that aspect, there’s not a direct correlation. We’ve not seen much of a change. The whole Trump administration’s strategy, whatever you want to call it, a direct Chinese situation hasn’t had much to play, But what we’ve been seeing is that Chinese exports have been slowing, and even though we don’t do anything directly with them, the indirect effect is still in place,” said StoneX VP Josh Linville.
Linville adds China’s own export strategy may be having a bigger impact, shifting global supply chains, and keeping more product at home.
“Since ’22, China, when you look at them, they would normally export about five to five and a half million tons of Urea per year. That started to fall off as we got into that early ’22 cycle when China started to step in. But it’s picked up the pace since 2024. Last year, their exports just barely made over a quarter million tons total. Not a single month. Total for the entire calendar year. Q-1 2025, those exports have fallen shy of 4,000 tons. We’re no longer measuring Chinese exports in vessels. We’re measuring them in containers.”
He says the results has been lower prices for Chinese buyers and higher costs elsewhere.
Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans, and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
October 06, 2025 11:56 AM
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated this week that the government will intervene to help, following China’s withdrawal from the U.S. soybean market. One trader says the industry will remain in a holding pattern until Tuesday.
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University of Illinois Ag Economist Gary Schnitker says early projections indicate soybeans will be more profitable than corn in 2026.
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Trump’s upcoming talks raise hopes for U.S. soybeans, but China’s record purchases from Brazil and Argentina show America’s market share remains under heavy pressure.
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“MAKE SOYBEANS, AND OTHER ROW CROPS, GREAT AGAIN!”
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Taiwan’s pledge to expand imports strengthens export prospects for U.S. row crops, livestock products, and specialty commodities, while the USDA’s broader trade push seeks to diversify farm markets globally.
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With China’s pullback, U.S. sorghum producers must broaden their export markets. Building connections now could help stabilize prices and demand for the upcoming larger crop.
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Higher domestic rail tariffs and mixed capacity shifts will influence grain movement this harvest. Strong corn exports provide momentum, but logistics costs remain a critical factor.
September 30, 2025 04:12 PM
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Duane Simpson, CEO of the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives (NCFC), joined us in Monday’s Market Day Report to share his perspective on the USDA’s plan and potential impact on producers.
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