Fertilizer ratios hit record highs while imports slow down

Economists are warning fertilizer prices are not jiving with grain values right now, and the situation is approaching near record levels.

Josh Linville with StoneX says the urea to corn ratio is at 99 bushels per ton right now, and UAN is at 79 bushels per ton. Linville says those statistics are the second worst in history for this time of year.

He cites a number of reasons, including plant maintenance, restrictions on Russian imports, and uncertainty out of major supply regions like Trinidad.

Related Stories
Transportation access, legal disputes, and fertilizer freight costs will directly influence input pricing and grain movement in 2026.
Fertilizer markets face uncertainty after President Trump raised the possibility of tariffs on Canadian imports, with analysts warning of supply and pricing risks. Josh Linville with StoneX provides a fertilizer industry outlook.
Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
Only properly documented, unexhausted fertilizer applied by prior owners may qualify for Section 180 expensing; broader nutrient-based claims carry significant legal and tax risk.
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
Stagger buys and diversifies fertilizer sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
Recognizing phosphorus and potash as critical minerals underscores their importance in crop production and food security, providing producers with an added layer of risk protection.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

New U.S. fees on Chinese-owned and built ships took effect overnight, marking the latest escalation in maritime trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
President Trump is expected to press Argentina to take a tougher stance on China in exchange for political and economic support.
Tammi Arender takes us to 3 Board Farm to meet some first-generation farmers who took a leap of faith and, in the process, found a new purpose.
Nick Andersen, Nationwide’s VP of Agribusiness Claims, shares tips for managing weather-related risks in agriculture using their new Hail and Wind Alert Program.
Lewie Pugh, EVP of OOIDA, discusses how lowering the age for commercial driver’s licenses (CDL) to 18 could rejuvenate the trucking labor market.
Founder Venessa Wood joins us now for a sneak peek of Ag Women Connect’s upcoming Red, White & Blue Gala.