WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Global cotton ending stocks are projected to reach their highest level since 2019/20 as production outpaces relatively flat demand, according to Leslie Meyer and Taylor Dew in USDA’s March Cotton and Wool Outlook.
For 2025/26, world ending stocks are forecast at 76.4 million bales, nearly 4 percent above a year earlier. Global production is projected at 121.0 million bales, up 2.1 percent, while world mill use is expected to slip slightly to 118.6 million bales. The larger crop, combined with steady-to-weaker demand, is pushing stocks higher in major producing countries.
In the United States, the cotton balance sheet was unchanged this month. Production remains forecast at 13.9 million bales, total supply at 17.9 million, and ending stocks at 4.4 million bales. U.S. mill use is projected at just 1.6 million bales, the lowest in more than 145 years, while exports are forecast at 12.0 million bales.
Globally, Brazil and the United States are expected to supply about 60 percent of cotton trade, while Vietnam, Bangladesh, China, and India remain key importers.
Looking ahead, rising stocks and a higher stocks-to-use ratio are expected to keep pressure on cotton prices.
The Cotton-4 are pushing hard for new value chain investments. Still, many U.S. cotton producers face unsustainable losses, and weakened regional textile capacity threatens the survival of the Carolina “dirt-to-shirt” supply chain.
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