NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Fuel costs — and farm input expenses — may ease over the next two years as global oil supplies continue to outpace demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude to average about $58 per barrel in 2026 and $53 in 2027, down from roughly $69 in 2025 as inventories steadily grow.
The agency says petroleum production is expanding faster than consumption worldwide. Higher output targets from OPEC+ and rising production in Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are adding barrels to the market while demand growth slows. At the same time, China is stockpiling crude oil, absorbing some supply but still contributing to rising global inventories.
Stocks are building in both harder-to-track non-OECD locations and traditional commercial storage across developed economies. As storage fills, the higher cost of holding excess crude typically pressures prices lower and slows future production growth.
For agriculture, the outlook indicates moderating diesel and fertilizer energy costs, but weaker ethanol margins if gasoline demand remains soft.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower oil prices may trim input costs but pressure biofuel demand.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Support policies that keep U.S. biofuels at the table—marine demand could materially lift corn grind, crush margins, and rural jobs.
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China is not one of our top suppliers of cooking oil, according to USDA ERS data, but does export a lot of used cooking oil to the U.S. for biofuel production.
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Expect choppier basis and wider bids — hedge earlier, keep logistics flexible, and watch Argentina and India headlines for near-term opportunities.
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Treat storage as risk management and logistics, and budget to break even since export growth is unlikely to absorb bigger U.S. corn and soybean crops.
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President Trump has long supported a direct line from Alberta’s oil fields to the Midwest.
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Tidal Grow Agri-Science joins us to celebrate Global Fertilizer Day, sharing how innovation continues to drive American agriculture forward.
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The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is urging Congress and the Trump Administration to act quickly on behalf of American agriculture.
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