GENEVA, SWITZERLAND (RFD-TV) — Global trade ran hotter than expected in early 2025, and that matters for agriculture’s supply chains.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) now projects merchandise trade to increase by 2.4 percent this year (up from 0.9 percent previously), driven by North American “frontloading” ahead of tariff hikes and a surge in AI-related goods that has consumed ships, ports, and chassis.
South-South commerce also accelerated, adding ballast to demand in emerging feed, food, and fiber markets. However, the outlook cools quickly: 2026 trade growth is trimmed to 0.5 percent as tariffs take effect and inventories unwind, with transport services also expected to slow.
What It Means for Agriculture
The trade pace in 2025 so far has generally supported export movements—though AI hardware has competed for container and port capacity at times—while front-loaded imports likely pulled forward some farm inputs (machinery, parts, packaged goods).
Regional patterns also matter: Asia and Africa are expected to lead export gains in 2025, highlighting opportunities for U.S. grains, oilseeds, meat, and cotton, where price and logistics are competitive. North American exports are viewed as softer, indicating a need to defend market share.
Into 2026, fading frontloading and higher tariffs could temper container availability and shipments, with mixed effects on freight rates and export pacing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Use 2025’s relative strength to move product and lock logistics; plan for a cooler 2026 with tighter margins on exports, potential rate shifts, and a premium on reliable delivery into growth markets in Asia and Africa.
Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
December 11, 2025 01:16 PM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities breaks down the outlook on grain storage and domestic supply chain strength as producers weigh planting decisions with forthcoming federal aid.
December 11, 2025 01:11 PM
·
Experts say flooding the zone with more money could have unintented consequences without opening new markets for planted crops and inputs under significant pressure.
December 11, 2025 12:25 PM
·
Julie Callahan was nominated earlier this summer by President Donald Trump, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told lawmakers she is ready to hit the ground running.
December 11, 2025 11:35 AM
·
American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland shares the soybean sector outlook following the announcement of farm aid to offset losses for U.S. row crop growers.
December 10, 2025 11:33 AM
·
Corn and wheat exports continue to outperform last year, while soybeans show steady but subdued movement compared to 2024.
December 09, 2025 12:14 PM
·
Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
December 09, 2025 11:55 AM
·
Lewie Pugh with the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) discusses the gap in truck driver education programs and how it impacts road safety and supply chain economics.
December 08, 2025 03:49 PM
·
$11 billion will go to row-crop farmers immediately, with $1 billion set aside for specialty crops.
December 08, 2025 03:19 PM
·
