GENEVA, SWITZERLAND (RFD-TV) — Global trade ran hotter than expected in early 2025, and that matters for agriculture’s supply chains.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) now projects merchandise trade to increase by 2.4 percent this year (up from 0.9 percent previously), driven by North American “frontloading” ahead of tariff hikes and a surge in AI-related goods that has consumed ships, ports, and chassis.
South-South commerce also accelerated, adding ballast to demand in emerging feed, food, and fiber markets. However, the outlook cools quickly: 2026 trade growth is trimmed to 0.5 percent as tariffs take effect and inventories unwind, with transport services also expected to slow.
What It Means for Agriculture
The trade pace in 2025 so far has generally supported export movements—though AI hardware has competed for container and port capacity at times—while front-loaded imports likely pulled forward some farm inputs (machinery, parts, packaged goods).
Regional patterns also matter: Asia and Africa are expected to lead export gains in 2025, highlighting opportunities for U.S. grains, oilseeds, meat, and cotton, where price and logistics are competitive. North American exports are viewed as softer, indicating a need to defend market share.
Into 2026, fading frontloading and higher tariffs could temper container availability and shipments, with mixed effects on freight rates and export pacing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Use 2025’s relative strength to move product and lock logistics; plan for a cooler 2026 with tighter margins on exports, potential rate shifts, and a premium on reliable delivery into growth markets in Asia and Africa.
USMEF CEO Dan Halstrom joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report for his analysis on the U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement, which includes big bucks for U.S. Beef.
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