WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD News) — Grocery inflation is masking sharply different price trends across the food aisle, with some categories climbing rapidly while others decline. USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts food-at-home prices will rise 2.4% in 2026, but individual categories vary widely.
Egg prices are projected to fall 29.4% for the year and were down 23% from August 2025. Dairy prices are forecast nearly unchanged at a 0.1% increase, while fats and oils are projected to decline 0.8%.
At the other end of the range, sugar and sweets are forecast up 6.6%. Fresh vegetables are projected to rise 5.7%, fish and seafood 5.9%, and nonalcoholic beverages 4.2%.
Those differences can shift consumer buying patterns and affect demand across farm commodities. Lower prices can improve movement in some categories, while faster inflation may encourage shoppers to substitute products or reduce purchases.
USDA expects several categories to moderate in 2027. Fresh vegetables are forecast down 0.5%, eggs up just 0.8%, and dairy up 1.5%, though the agency’s forecast intervals remain broad.
