Food Prices & Inflation
Falling farm commodity prices do not guarantee lower grocery bills when processing, labor, transportation, and retail costs remain high.
More than 40 farm groups say labor disruptions could leave crops unharvested and increase production costs.
New grocery models are being explored as communities look for ways to keep local food access available.
Higher restaurant spending could support foodservice demand for U.S. agricultural products.
Spending declined overall in 2025, though WIC and child nutrition programs increased.
Global food insecurity is projected to decline over the next decade as incomes rise and food price inflation eases, though regional challenges will persist.
Consumer prices rose 3.7% over the past year, while gasoline prices jumped 34.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September Consumer Price Index.
USDA forecasts wide price differences across grocery categories in 2026.
Beef and veal prices are projected to rise more than three times as fast as overall food prices.
USDA expects overall food prices to rise 2.9% in 2026, near the 20-year historical average.