Despite its continuously shrinking cattle herd, U.S. beef production is running a bit higher than expected this year. It has many worried about what is to come.
According to USDA’s Outlook Chairman, Mark Jekanowski, “We raised our steer price forecast for both 2024 and 2025 this month. For 2024, we have a price forecast of $186.68 per hundred weight. We expect that to strengthen further into 2025 with even tighter supplies. So, our current forecast for 2025 is $188 per hundred weight. That would be up $1.32 per hundred weight year-over-year.”
Jekanowski says that outlook is largely dependent on the decisions cattle producers have made over the last three years and are even making now.
“We’re not retaining many heifers to grow the herd. We keep, you know, pulling those cattle in to feed lots to produce beef today instead of beef months and years ahead,” he adds.
Some analysts believe next year’s prices could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back so to speak, finally triggering producers to retain more heifers for herd expansion.
Shrinking sheep numbers contrast with gradual goat expansion, signaling tighter lamb supplies but steadier growth potential for meat goats.
February 02, 2026 10:29 AM
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Falling livestock prices, combined with higher input costs, continue to squeeze farm profitability heading into 2026.
February 02, 2026 10:22 AM
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Smaller cow numbers and a declining calf crop point to prolonged tight cattle supplies, limiting near-term herd rebuilding potential.
January 30, 2026 03:42 PM
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Quinn Rutt of Upstream Ranch previews the Nebraska cattle operation’s 49th Annual Production Sale where buyers can expect standout sire groups and a blend of long-standing ranch practices with modern genetic selection.
January 30, 2026 03:23 PM
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CattleCon 2026 officially kicks off Tuesday and continues through Thursday, bringing producers together to shape the future of the U.S. cattle industry.
January 30, 2026 01:30 PM
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The federal government’s status is far from the only factor moving the markets on Friday. Two critical reports released today on producer inflation and the status of the U.S. cattle herd are also top of mind.
January 30, 2026 12:51 PM
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