Hog Supplies Tighten as Prices Ease, Production Holds Steady

The USDA’s latest Hogs and Pigs Report caught some analysts off guard. Inventories came in lower than expected, signaling tighter supplies ahead, even as producers return to profitability this year.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Hog prices are easing slightly with Western Cornbelt caracasses down from the previous week. Pork producer profits have narrowed to about $64 per head, but margins remain in the black, and packers continue to run near full capacity, with utilization around 97 percent. Even with lower cutout values and feed costs, analysts say demand for pork remains steady and supplies are strong.

The latest Hogs and Pigs Report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) caught some analysts off guard. Inventories came in lower than expected, signaling tighter supplies ahead, even as producers return to profitability this year.

“That gave us inventories as of September 1 and then helped us kind of project those numbers six months to a year ahead, as we kind of look at those slaughter supplies and kind of anticipate what those numbers are,’ said xxx. “And to summarize that report, you know, I would put it in the category of a bit of a shocker, because not only did we see numbers below a year ago, which was a little bit of a surprise, but compared to pre-report expectations, as there’s about seven analysts that were asked about, you know, what they expected the numbers to be, and USDA came in much lower than those numbers.”

That surprise has ripple effects across the market, with forecasts shifting as analysts weigh the latest numbers against producer demand.

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“We find lots of public support when there is a natural disaster, but maybe a little bit less when people think prices are too low.”
“We raise one-third of the total U.S. pigs raised here come from Iowa. So, one out of every three pigs is raised right here in Iowa.”

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These “USDA Foods” are provided to USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) nutrition assistance programs, including food banks that operate The Emergency Food Assistance Program (TEFAP), and are a vital component of the nation’s food safety net.