Is the rebuilding of the U.S. cattle herd finally gaining traction?

The beef industry has been waiting years for the herd to rebuild, and researchers at CattleFax say it is happening, but note it is taking a lot longer than originally thought.

Despite the higher prices, they say consumers are still buying up all they can.

“It does look like when we look back, January of 2025 will be the low in the beef cow herd. So, as I look at the numbers out here, I think it’s important that people recognize that our per capita beef supplies are pretty flat. They haven’t changed much. This price increase that we’re experiencing in the industry is demand-driven. Beef demand is at a 37-year high, and I think when people think about demand, obviously, quality has been the key to that. We’ve seen the quality of the animals being produced has increased substantially,” said CattleFax CEO Randy Blach.

Researchers at RaboBank have also been tracking the numbers. They say that hot consumer demand is likely here to stay.

“And I’m here to tell you, as we look at early 2025, all indications are that demand is going to continue to set new near-term record highs, looking like the best demand we’ve seen since 1986 at the moment. And a lot of that’s due to the fact that even though the consumer pricing is going up, and even though the consumer’s increasingly stressed, buying beef at retail is still a relatively cheap lifestyle upgrade that the consumer can make,” said Lance Zimmerman.

The latest Cattle On Feed report shows inventories are down two percent compared to last year at this time. Only two states saw an increase: Kansas herds grew by three percent, and Oklahoma herds grew by two percent.

Related Stories
Buzzard discusses her upcoming appearance on the Dirt Diaries podcast with host Kirbe Schnoor and the importance of sharing authentic stories about agriculture.
Cargill’s commitment to keep plants open helps preserve competition as Tyson removes capacity amid historically tight cattle supplies.
The newly elected Executive Vice President of the Tennessee Cattlemen’s Association (TCA), Dale Parker, joins us on-set to share his vision for his state’s cattle industry.
Tyson’s capacity cuts weaken local basis, tighten kill space, and heighten dependence on imports, signaling more volatility for producers.
Strong yields and higher cattle prices helped stabilize conditions, but weak crop prices and rising carryover debt remain major challenges for Eleventh District farmers.
Jake Charleston, with Specialty Risk Insurance, joins us now for an industry update and advice for cattle producers as they consider options for managing the risks of a murky market.
The National Milk Producers Federation will launch a new advocacy campaign to secure a final vote, urging House lawmakers to approve the bill as soon as they return from the Thanksgiving recess.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Midland County Junior Livestock Show in West Texas features swine competition with top exhibitors, including Grand Champion Brinley Wilson, ahead of Saturday’s premium sale.
Rep. Erin Houchin of Indiana discusses how the Affordable Homes Act will benefit rural communities, and her broader efforts to improve access to affordable housing.
Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig discusses market conditions, policy priorities, and his outlook for agriculture moving forward.
NEFB President Mark McHargue recaps the Farm Bureau’s Annual Convention, producer sentiment in Nebraska, and discusses key issues facing agriculture.
Congressman Dusty Johnson of South Dakota joined us to discuss key ag policy developments and his outlook for agriculture in 2026.
House Agriculture Committee Democrats are calling for action on the Farm and Family Relief Act, warning that proposed SNAP cost shifts to states could reduce food assistance for low-income families amid ongoing tariffs and trade disruptions that continue to strain U.S. farmers.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.