The beef industry has been waiting years for the herd to rebuild, and researchers at CattleFax say it is happening, but note it is taking a lot longer than originally thought.
Despite the higher prices, they say consumers are still buying up all they can.
“It does look like when we look back, January of 2025 will be the low in the beef cow herd. So, as I look at the numbers out here, I think it’s important that people recognize that our per capita beef supplies are pretty flat. They haven’t changed much. This price increase that we’re experiencing in the industry is demand-driven. Beef demand is at a 37-year high, and I think when people think about demand, obviously, quality has been the key to that. We’ve seen the quality of the animals being produced has increased substantially,” said CattleFax CEO Randy Blach.
Researchers at RaboBank have also been tracking the numbers. They say that hot consumer demand is likely here to stay.
“And I’m here to tell you, as we look at early 2025, all indications are that demand is going to continue to set new near-term record highs, looking like the best demand we’ve seen since 1986 at the moment. And a lot of that’s due to the fact that even though the consumer pricing is going up, and even though the consumer’s increasingly stressed, buying beef at retail is still a relatively cheap lifestyle upgrade that the consumer can make,” said Lance Zimmerman.
The latest Cattle On Feed report shows inventories are down two percent compared to last year at this time. Only two states saw an increase: Kansas herds grew by three percent, and Oklahoma herds grew by two percent.
Protein markets are fragmenting. Beef is supply-driven and more structurally expensive, whereas pork and poultry remain price-competitive.
January 10, 2026 07:00 AM
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Tight fed supplies shift margin risk to packers, strengthening cattle price leverage but increasing volatility.
January 09, 2026 03:36 PM
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Reduced winter placements indicate tighter fed cattle supplies and greater leverage during peak-demand months.
January 09, 2026 06:00 AM
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Retail pricing confirms tight cattle supplies and supports continued leverage for producers, reinforcing the need for disciplined risk management.
January 07, 2026 06:00 PM
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Dr. Rosslyn Biggs with the Oklahoma State University Center for Rural Veterinary Medicine shares insight into biosecurity, preparedness, and animal health concerns facing livestock producers as New World screwworm outbreaks continue in Mexico.
January 07, 2026 12:57 PM
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Seasonal boxed beef softness does not change the tight-supply outlook — leverage remains closer to the farm gate heading into 2026.
January 07, 2026 06:00 AM
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Sen. Deb Fischer reintroduces the HAULS Act to update hours-of-service exemptions and definitions affecting livestock and agricultural haulers. She joins us on Market Day Report to share more about her proposed legislation.
January 06, 2026 01:28 PM
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The U.S. Meat Export Federation plans to expand its global market presence in the New Year and says it is focusing its appeal on the growing middle class worldwide.
January 06, 2026 12:21 PM
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New World Screwworm cases in Mexico, including one within 200 miles of the U.S. border, are adding pressure to livestock markets and trade decisions.
January 06, 2026 12:09 PM
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