Is the U.S. hog herd ready to expand? Economists say it’s possible

While America’s ranchers work to rebuild the cattle herd, economists say something is brewing with hogs.

New data shows the U.S. hog herd could be ready to expand. They have been crunching the numbers and say feed costs are the largest indicator right now.

“The hog-to-corn price ratio just rounds up to 20 for the last two quarters. Last Friday’s closing prices for the same month’s hog and corn futures contracts suggest ratios exceeding 27 in July and 20 in December 2025, and remaining above 20 in May 2026. If such levels persist, perhaps some breeding herd growth could be observed in subsequent quarterly reports,” said Jason Franken.

Franken has been studying these numbers for a while now. He says that if those levels keep up, future reports could show breeding herd growth down the line.

Related Stories
Rising protein demand supports long-term trade in feed and meat.
China’s stricter inspection rules prompt Cargill to pause soybean exports from Brazil, briefly lifting U.S. soybean prices as traders anticipate potential shifts in global trade, as export demand remains supportive across all major U.S. commodities.
National Pork Producers Council incoming president Rob Brenneman shares insights from the National Pork Industry Forum in Kansas City, where producers gathered to discuss Farm Bill policy, sustainability, and other priorities for the year ahead.
USDA’s March WASDE report leaves U.S. corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks unchanged while adjusting global production estimates for South America.
Strong consumer demand supports livestock market outlook.
Strong corn demand and cotton shipments support export outlook.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Vive’s Art Graves shared insights on the new PHO-BUS F-C 360 foliar fungicide, its advantages for Canadian growers, early performance results, and the company’s ongoing commitment to advanced crop protection solutions.
Kentucky Firefighters Jonathan and Lonny Epley and Extension Agent Leann Martin tell us about a new portable grain bin rescue tool, and its potential to enhance safety for farmers and first responders nationwide.
Tennessee Ag in focus: Commissioner Holt shares his farm economy outlook, the TNFB honors a cotton legacy, and TN 4-H and FFA leaders discuss support for the next generation of agriculture in Tennessee.
RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney shares insights from new Real Agri-Studies research surrounding the relationship between farmers and their lenders and what it reveals about the current farm economy.
Farm Bureau economist Dr. Faith Parum explains how geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East could further tighten fertilizer movement, increase fuel costs, and complicate planting decisions for U.S. farmers this spring.
Missouri Farm Bureau President Garrett Hawkins discusses the potential impact of data center growth on farmland, the Landowner Fairness Act, and key priorities for Missouri farmers heading into planting season.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.