Is the U.S. hog herd ready to expand? Economists say it’s possible

While America’s ranchers work to rebuild the cattle herd, economists say something is brewing with hogs.

New data shows the U.S. hog herd could be ready to expand. They have been crunching the numbers and say feed costs are the largest indicator right now.

“The hog-to-corn price ratio just rounds up to 20 for the last two quarters. Last Friday’s closing prices for the same month’s hog and corn futures contracts suggest ratios exceeding 27 in July and 20 in December 2025, and remaining above 20 in May 2026. If such levels persist, perhaps some breeding herd growth could be observed in subsequent quarterly reports,” said Jason Franken.

Franken has been studying these numbers for a while now. He says that if those levels keep up, future reports could show breeding herd growth down the line.

Related Stories
Productivity gains are supporting supply despite limited herd expansion.
Young exhibitors balance school and months of preparation as they compete at one of Texas’s largest livestock events.
Tight red meat supplies continue supporting livestock markets.
From barns to show rings, producers and students say that livestock events offer economic opportunity and life lessons. Let’s take a look at some shows across the southeast in Georgia, Virginia and Louisiana.
Strong exports support cattle and hog market fundamentals.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

With the Farm Bill now in the Senate’s hands, industry groups say the stakes are high—and timely action could be critical for producers navigating a difficult economic environment.
Tennessee corn and soy farmer Josh Ogle joins us to discuss rapid planting progress in the state, improving moisture conditions, and early crop development challenges in the MidSouth region.
Paul Neiffer joined us to explain how USDA’s base acre expansion will be calculated, outline key deadlines for farmers, and discuss how the changes tie into farm program decisions and the broader Farm Bill outlook.
Chad Fiechter joins us to discuss Purdue’s precision ag study, challenges in capturing value from technology, and what farmers should consider when investing in and adopting these tools.
Agriculture Shows
Created by former Louisiana Farm Bureau PR Director and former host Regnal Wallace, “This Week in Louisiana Agriculture,” is one of the state’s longest-running TV programs.
From the rapid technological advances in the business of farming to the policy that helps shape the industry, growers get unparalleled perspective from these guys. Max Armstrong, Mike Pearson and Greg Soulje: the names producers have long known and trusted for agriculture news, weather, and commentary.
Watch Rural Evening News on RFD Network to catch up on that day’s news surrounding agriculture and markets from across the world.
Every day on RFD Network, “Market Day Report” delivers LIVE coverage of agribusiness news, weather, and commodity market information from across the world. Our commodity markets coverage is updated every half hour to bringyou the latest agriculture news.