Is the U.S. hog herd ready to expand? Economists say it’s possible

While America’s ranchers work to rebuild the cattle herd, economists say something is brewing with hogs.

New data shows the U.S. hog herd could be ready to expand. They have been crunching the numbers and say feed costs are the largest indicator right now.

“The hog-to-corn price ratio just rounds up to 20 for the last two quarters. Last Friday’s closing prices for the same month’s hog and corn futures contracts suggest ratios exceeding 27 in July and 20 in December 2025, and remaining above 20 in May 2026. If such levels persist, perhaps some breeding herd growth could be observed in subsequent quarterly reports,” said Jason Franken.

Franken has been studying these numbers for a while now. He says that if those levels keep up, future reports could show breeding herd growth down the line.

Related Stories
American beef and pork products are gaining visibility in Colombian butcher shops through training and merchandising programs.
Based on USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation, pork exports increased by six percent in March compared to the previous year, while beef exports weakened overall.
New trade access, tariff concerns and international negotiations are reshaping the global beef market.
National Pork Producers Council President Rob Brenneman joins us to discuss Prop 12 provisions in the House’s Farm Bill as it heads to the Senate for debate.
Officials say no additional spread has been detected as containment and monitoring efforts move forward.
Tyson is still reshaping its beef footprint.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Matt Brockman, Communications Director for the Fort Worth Stock Show and Rodeo, joined us with a look at how the legendary event is moving forward—weather and all.
Roger McEowen, with the Washburn School of Law, offers an in-depth look at two of the top legal issues of 202. Today, he walks through last year’s Waters of the United States (WOTUS) ruling and “lawfare.”
Lewis Williamson of HTS Commodities joined us with an update on the historic winter storm impacts and his outlook on today’s ag markets.
Marilyn Schlake with the UNL Department of Agricultural Economics joined us for a closer look at the evolving role of livestock sale barns.
RFD NEWS correspondent Frank McCaffrey recently spoke with Dr. Mike Vickers, a South Texas rancher, who says illegal border crossings have dramatically declined in the last year.
Auction manager and West Texas A&M University student Presley Graves joined us to discuss the growth of StockShowAuctions.com and its impact on youth in agriculture.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.