The U.S. dairy industry is growing, providing ample opportunity for producers. The $76 billion category is larger than any other, including alcohol.
However, CoBank economist Corey Geiger warns that the growth does not come without some challenges.
“Sixteen to 17% of our dairy products go to export in the United States,” Geiger explains. “So with the word ‘tariff’ coming about...you know, issues in that area, we might see a little bit of slowed sales. The upward trajectory in the dairy industry is strong, and actually, in 2024, milk beverage sales, fluid milk, were actually stable. So, if we can stabilize that category and see great growth in cheese, butter, and whey proteins—it’s a bright future.”
While those tariff concerns have been held off for a month, the market is still facing unprecedented volatility.
“We were looking at a little more supportive to that market just a couple of weeks ago, but the unprecedented volatility in the cheese market and demand being about a half a percent slower, and then the perception on what tariffs could do really kind of knocked the support out under that market,” notes JSA Dairy Division Lead Robin Schmahl. “And so, we might be looking at something a little bit less as far as an average price than what we were looking at maybe about three weeks ago.”
The USDA’s latest milk production estimates show that in December, milk in the 24 major producing states totaled 18 billion pounds.
Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
January 18, 2026 07:00 AM
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RFD NEWS Correspondent Frank McCaffrey speaks with Texas’s Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez about USMCA renegotiation and its impact on U.S.–Mexico agriculture trade.
January 17, 2026 05:00 PM
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Shaun Haney joined us to discuss Canada’s new trade agreement with China, the potential impact on farmers and exporters, and what it could mean for U.S.–Canada trade relations going forward.
January 16, 2026 01:16 PM
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National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.
January 16, 2026 01:13 PM
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The proposal signals a renewed push to offset tariff-driven losses, stabilize nutrition programs, and broaden eligibility for farm aid, though its path forward will depend on congressional negotiations.
January 16, 2026 11:58 AM
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Congressman Dusty Johnson of South Dakota joined us to discuss key ag policy developments and his outlook for agriculture in 2026.
January 15, 2026 12:51 PM
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House Agriculture Committee Democrats are calling for action on the Farm and Family Relief Act, warning that proposed SNAP cost shifts to states could reduce food assistance for low-income families amid ongoing tariffs and trade disruptions that continue to strain U.S. farmers.
January 15, 2026 12:30 PM
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Tight beef cow supplies and steady demand point to continued record-level cull cow prices in 2026.
January 15, 2026 11:23 AM
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Expanded school access to whole milk provides modest but reliable demand support for U.S. dairy producers.
January 15, 2026 10:14 AM
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