USDA lowered its soybean production forecast, which caused a rally. However, a social media post from the President earlier in the week also shook the market.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says he is not paying much attention to outside noise.
“For people in agriculture to believe that any U.S. President can ‘urge China to change its policy or its trade practice’ is beyond ridiculous, but yet that’s where we were. That’s where we were all Monday session, and now we’ll see what happens. I mean, will sanity return to the market? Probably not.”
Newsom says for him, it all comes down to fundamentals, something he says has not seen much change.
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The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum highlights modest price support from tighter supplies across cotton, grains, dairy, livestock, and sugar into 2026.
Strong corn exports support prices while soybeans lag yearly pace. However, large carryover stocks limit upside despite solid yields.
Large carry-in stocks across major crops could limit price recovery in 2026/27 unless demand strengthens or weather-related supply reductions occur.
Rising Chinese feed output — especially for swine — signals sustained demand for protein meals and feed inputs, even when meat production growth appears modest.
Corn demand remains supportive, but weaker soybean buying limits overall export momentum.
