NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Low water on the Mississippi River System is once again disrupting harvest logistics, reducing barge capacity at a critical time for U.S. grain exports. Following an unusually dry August in the Ohio River Basin—the driest on record—tributary flow into the lower Mississippi has dropped sharply.
Gauges at Cairo, IL, and Memphis, TN, are hovering just above low-water thresholds, prompting restrictions by the U.S. Coast Guard and dredging operations by the Army Corps of Engineers to keep navigation open. Restrictions now limit tow sizes and draft depths, cutting efficiency for both southbound grain and northbound fertilizer shipments.
The USDA projects record U.S. corn production this fall at 427 million metric tons, with exports expected to reach 75.6 mmt. Year-to-date sales are running 46 percent above average, with Mexico, Japan, and Colombia leading buyers. By contrast, soybean export sales are down sharply, as China has yet to finalize purchases, although soybean meal exports are expected to reach record levels.
Barge freight rates out of Cairo and Memphis have risen 31 percent over the past month but remain well below the extreme highs of 2022. Analysts note that lessons learned since then, combined with lower soybean export volumes, have tempered rate spikes. Still, strong corn exports and any rebound in soybean demand could add pressure if river conditions deteriorate further.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers face tighter barge capacity and higher freight costs during peak harvest. Strong corn exports may further strain logistics if low water levels persist, although weaker soybean exports are currently tempering rate spikes.
Strong export demand supports feed grain prices, but drought risk and seasonal patterns favor disciplined early-year marketing.
January 06, 2026 02:46 PM
·
Sen. Deb Fischer reintroduces the HAULS Act to update hours-of-service exemptions and definitions affecting livestock and agricultural haulers. She joins us on Market Day Report to share more about her proposed legislation.
January 06, 2026 01:28 PM
·
Corn export strength remains a key demand anchor, while China’s continued involvement in soybeans and sorghum bears close watching for price direction.
January 06, 2026 01:12 PM
·
Strong crush demand and rising ethanol production are pressuring feedstocks, as traders monitor storage risks and supply chain uncertainty and await the upcoming January WASDE report.
January 06, 2026 01:04 PM
·
The U.S. Meat Export Federation plans to expand its global market presence in the New Year and says it is focusing its appeal on the growing middle class worldwide.
January 06, 2026 12:21 PM
·
Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.
January 05, 2026 02:49 PM
·
Cotton demand depends on demonstrating performance and reliability buyers can rely on, not messaging alone.
January 05, 2026 02:41 PM
·
A look at the legislative year ahead as lawmakers return to Washington with a slate of trade concerns to tackle in 2026—from new Chinese tariffs on beef imports to the USMCA review this summer.
January 05, 2026 12:20 PM
·
December 30, 2025 11:58 AM
