Milk Production Rises As Herd Expansion Continues Nationwide

Growing milk supply may pressure prices ahead.

dairy ag labor reform 1280.jpg

Market Day Report

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Milk production increased in February as herd growth and improved yields continue to expand U.S. dairy output, adding pressure on prices but supporting export potential.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports U.S. milk production at 18.3 billion pounds, up 2.9 percent from a year ago. In the 24 major states, production reached 17.6 billion pounds, up 3.1 percent. Output per cow also improved, with national averages rising to 1,899 pounds per head, reflecting continued gains in productivity.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Growing milk supply may pressure prices ahead.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Operationally, herd expansion remains a key driver. The U.S. dairy herd reached 9.62 million head, up 211,000 from last year and continuing a steady upward trend. Producers are maintaining larger herds while also improving milk components and efficiency, supporting overall production growth.

Regionally, expansion remains concentrated in key dairy states, including Texas, Idaho, and South Dakota, while some traditional regions show more modest changes. Increased processing capacity in growth regions is also supporting higher output levels.

Looking ahead, rising milk supplies could put downward pressure on domestic prices, but stronger export demand and competitive pricing may help balance markets.

Related Stories
Reduced winter placements indicate tighter fed cattle supplies and greater leverage during peak-demand months.
Farmer Bridge payments are being used primarily to reduce debt and protect cash flow, not drive new spending. Curt Blades with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers joined us to provide insight into the ag equipment market and the factors influencing sales.
Rail strength is helping stabilize grain movement, but river and export slowdowns continue to limit overall logistics momentum.
Retail pricing confirms tight cattle supplies and supports continued leverage for producers, reinforcing the need for disciplined risk management.
Long-term demand uncertainty is reshaping specialty crop strategies as producers adapt to fewer, older consumers.
Seasonal boxed beef softness does not change the tight-supply outlook — leverage remains closer to the farm gate heading into 2026.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Record milk output looks strong today, but shrinking replacement numbers mean future supply adjustments could be faster and more volatile.
Often overlooked, cotton wholesalers act as stabilizers during market stress, translating fragmented retail demand into workable production programs for mills and manufacturers.
Strong blending demand continues to support ethanol use even as production and exports fluctuate.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer helps producers navigate farm program payments and understand the key details farmers need to know.
Early indications suggest the U.S. cattle industry may be nearing the end of its liquidation phase. Oklahoma State University livestock economist Dr. Derrell Peel says the industry could be at or near the cyclical low.
Beef x Dairy cattle with strong genetics and documentation are earning prices comparable to native feeders.