We’ve got new estimates out this week from brokers doing their own crop surveys. Economists with Allendale, Inc., a Chicago-based firm, tell us all eyes are on soybeans — and warn that replacing China as a buyer won’t be an easy task.
Allendale’s chief strategist said that their survey showed corn yields at 187.5 bushels per acre this year, with soybeans at 52.2 bushels per acre.
In all, they expect the corn crop to land at 16.6 billion bushels and soybeans at 4.2 billion bushels. Allendale said they got all this information directly from farmers with surveys sent by their own brokers. They agree – if realized – farmers will need to closely manage storage and marketing plans this fall.
How do Allendale’s numbers compare to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest estimates? August’s WASDE report shows that the USDA was expecting nearly the identical totals, with corn still slightly higher than Allendale’s private survey.
Soybeans are also expected to come in lower, according to the group.
We’ll get a new read from the USDA on this year’s crops one week from today in the September WASDE report, which is released next Friday at 12 PM ET. As always, RFD-TV news will bring you those numbers hot off the press on Market Day Report.
China Fights Back on Trump Tariffs
“With that China story – last year, they were 832 million bushels as far as our export to them,” explains Allendale economist Rich Nelson in an interview with RFD-TV Markets Expert Tommy Grissafi from Ag Bull Media. “So, do we have an export risk of, let’s say, 300 million bushels? And maybe we can find a home for, let’s say, 100 [million bushels] of that. You can make that argument. But the point is, we probably have a realistic concern for U.S. exports as a total, even to selling to some minor players. We probably have a total concern that this market is looking at it. Maybe up to 200 million bushels.”
Chinese officials were in Washington, D.C. recently. Just this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with leaders of other countries currently in trade talks with the United States. Stone X Chief Economist Arlan Suderman told RFD-TV that China likely won’t wait around while soybean growers look for new markets.
“Meanwhile, what do we see?” Suderman continued: “We see President Xi Jinping of China meeting with President Putin of Russia. Meeting with Prime Minister Modi of India, and [...] the President of Brazil. Stating that they’re going to gather together to fight against [President Donald] Trump and his tariffs. We see an appeals court that rules against the Trump tariffs. That increases uncertainty. That emboldens those countries that are trying to fight against us and may unwind some of the trade deals we have that were good for agriculture.”
