NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Low prices, disrupted trade, and paused policy support are squeezing cash flow across crop country, according to AgAmerica. Since 2018, production costs have risen by more than 36 percent, while the Rural Mainstreet Index has slid to a five-year low, signaling both tighter credit and weaker countryside demand. With USDA relief programs delayed during the shutdown, many grain operations have been navigating 2025 with thinner cushions and fewer safety valves.
Corn has leaned on strong Mexican buying to offset uneven ethanol margins and uncertainty around wider E15 adoption. Soybeans remain under pressure as China favors South American supplies; futures and basis have softened, though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments about potential U.S. purchases (12 MMT this year and 25 MMT annually thereafter) offer cautious upside if realized. Wheat, sorghum, and barley face their own headwinds, but the year’s volatility centers on corn and soybeans.
Marketing and storage are functioning more as risk tools than profit engines this fall, with liquidity and flexible financing pivotal as producers plan 2026. AgAmerica notes that a proactive debt structure, cash-flow flexibility, and measured sales timing can stabilize margins as policy and trade signals evolve.
As economic pressures continue to squeeze agriculture, ag lenders are signaling a more cautious outlook for farm profitability heading into next year. While many expect producers to remain in positive territory, a new nationwide survey reveals growing concern, particularly among grain producers facing lower commodity prices and higher operating costs.
Jackson Takach, Chief Economist for Farmer Mac, joined RFD-TV to break down the findings of the newly released Farmer Mac–American Bankers Association Agricultural Lender Survey.
Takach highlighted several key takeaways regarding farm finances for both this year and 2025, noting that lenders are seeing tighter margins, elevated input costs, and a pullback in working capital among some producers. He explained that while the farm economy remains relatively stable, the survey shows rising caution amid increasing revenue pressures.
Among lenders’ top concerns, credit quality and loan repayment capacity ranked near the top, along with uncertainty surrounding interest rates, land values, and government support programs. Many lenders also pointed to stress among grain operations as a leading risk factor.
Takach also discussed trends in loan demand, which increased this year as producers sought financing for operating costs, equipment upgrades, and land purchases. He noted that most lenders expect this elevated demand to continue into next year.
As for his overall takeaway, Takach emphasized that the survey points to a farm economy in transition — one that remains resilient, but faces headwinds that lenders will be watching closely as producers navigate 2025.
