Next month’s upcoming government reports could impact the markets

Recent trade action could really begin to show up.

The ag industry and the markets are eager to get new government reports next month, and it is when recent trade action could really begin to show up.

One economist says all the tariff talk could make moves in the May WASDE, especially around exports.

“We’ve been running much lower than year-ago levels. Obviously, the increased tariff rates on U.S. port shipments to China, as well as price competition for other major exporting countries. We’ve seen some headline news that Brazil, for example, has seen some real increases in their trade by volume over the last couple of months. And so, I think as you look at all those factors, USDA made that change to some of those fundamentals that they expect to play out here in 2025,” said Lee Schulz.

On Tuesday, USDA will release the official balance sheet for the year. Schulz says he will be closely watching state-level data around the hog and pork sectors.

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One trader said the products entering the U.S. are primarily grind and trim, noting that the volume and type of beef, on its own, should not cause a major disruption. However, he says fund traders are reacting heavily to headlines rather than market realities.

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