LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Oil and gas companies are planning for a period of modest prices and elevated uncertainty, a combination that could influence fuel costs, rural economies, and agricultural input expenses through 2026. The latest Dallas Federal Reserve Energy Survey shows executives budgeting conservatively as activity remains soft and outlooks stay cautious.
Survey respondents expect West Texas Intermediate crude oil to average about $62 per barrel by the end of 2026, with longer-term expectations rising to $69 in 2 years and $75 in 5 years. Natural gas prices are forecast near $4.19 per MMBtu at year-end 2026. Those levels suggest limited near-term price upside, reinforcing disciplined capital spending plans across the energy sector.
Operational challenges remain. Business activity stayed negative late in 2025, while uncertainty remained elevated. Production was largely flat, and oilfield service firms reported compressed margins, weaker equipment utilization, and lower prices for services. Employment also softened, with fewer hours worked and slower wage growth.
For agriculture, the outlook is mixed. Stable oil prices could help limit diesel, freight, and irrigation costs, while natural gas pricing will continue to influence fertilizer and energy expenses. At the same time, restrained drilling activity may reduce economic support in energy-dependent rural regions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Moderate oil prices may ease fuel costs, but continued caution in the energy sector could limit rural economic growth.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
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