Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could impact the global wheat markets

Geopolitical events could cause a shake-up in wheat. This week, President Trump said he has begun talks to help end the war in Ukraine.

Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions says that news caught the market’s attention.

“Trump is trying to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, and if that happens, does that mean that Russia stops dumping cheap wheat onto the world market to fund their war? No war, no cheap wheat hitting the markets, we may see a little bit more competitive balance for world wheat trade if that does in fact happen.”

Another area traders are watching is South America. Conab recently put out numbers for Brazil’s soybean crop, leaving it largely unchanged from last season, but weather has not been very cooperative.

“It looks like the early yields were a little bit poor but are starting to pick up, improving now. It looks like we’re going to get some drier forecasts going forward and maybe some rain in southern Brazil and Northern Argentina. So, I would say the harvest weather is improving,” said Don Roose.

We should have a better idea where global crops stand next month when the WASDE report comes out March 11th.

Related Stories
Escalating U.S.–China tensions threaten soybean demand as farm finances are stretched further.
The news immediately caused a drop in equities and commodities, with soybeans down 20 percent in a matter of minutes.
ock NH3 early, track China’s Oct. 15 call and any U.S. Russia-UAN action, stay nimble on urea, and budget cautiously for high-priced phosphate.
Large animal veterinarian Dr. Rosalyn Biggs with Oklahoma State University warns producers may not be prepared for the real threat of New World Screwworm.
AFBF Associate Economist Samantha Ayoub joins us to dive into H-2A visa program changes and what can be done to ease the pressure on producers.
Plan for a cooler global trade market in 2026 with tighter margins on exports, potential rate shifts, and premiums for reliable deliveries into Asian and African growth markets.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Read the full press release published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Lily Pryer’s passion shows how National FFA members are making an impact in classrooms and communities all across Rural America.
A look at the legislative year ahead as lawmakers return to Washington with a slate of trade concerns to tackle in 2026—from new Chinese tariffs on beef imports to the USMCA review this summer.
Shaun Haney, Host of RealAg Radio on Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147, joined us with his 2026 cattle market outlook and insights on beef prices.
Farmer Bridge Assistance payments provide immediate balance-sheet support heading into 2026, but remain a short-term bridge rather than a substitute for long-term market recovery.
The New Year is here, but in Oregon, some ranchers and livestock producers are still trying to recover from record wildfires back in 2024.