Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could impact the global wheat markets

Geopolitical events could cause a shake-up in wheat. This week, President Trump said he has begun talks to help end the war in Ukraine.

Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions says that news caught the market’s attention.

“Trump is trying to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, and if that happens, does that mean that Russia stops dumping cheap wheat onto the world market to fund their war? No war, no cheap wheat hitting the markets, we may see a little bit more competitive balance for world wheat trade if that does in fact happen.”

Another area traders are watching is South America. Conab recently put out numbers for Brazil’s soybean crop, leaving it largely unchanged from last season, but weather has not been very cooperative.

“It looks like the early yields were a little bit poor but are starting to pick up, improving now. It looks like we’re going to get some drier forecasts going forward and maybe some rain in southern Brazil and Northern Argentina. So, I would say the harvest weather is improving,” said Don Roose.

We should have a better idea where global crops stand next month when the WASDE report comes out March 11th.

Related Stories
USTR Jamieson Greer signals a narrower trade deal with China, adding more market uncertainty. The Farm Bureau also supports reviewing China’s missed trade commitments under the Phase One.
American soybean and corn leaders, along with Canada’s AgriFood sector, testified before the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office in support of the trade pact between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
The FAO Food Price Index for November fell by more than 1 percent in November, marking the third straight month of declines.
Texas livestock producers face a heightened biosecurity threat as New World screwworm detections in northern Mexico coincide with FDA approval of the first topical treatment.
Higher ocean freight raises export costs just as global grain competition intensifies.
WTO gauges point to agricultural raw materials trade growing more slowly than overall goods, reinforcing the need to manage export risk and monitor policy shifts closely.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The Farm Bureau is making an urgent call to Congress for more farm support. Colton Lacina with Farmers National Company joined us to discuss farmland values and how market dynamics for the year ahead reflect stabilization rather than collapse.
Analysts say a Supreme Court decision on tariffs could reshape protein markets, strain U.S.-China trade, and force farmers to rethink global demand strategies.
Wayne Cockrell with the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association joined us to discuss preparedness, producer awareness, and the industry’s response to New World screwworm concerns.
President Donald Trump speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, addressing SNAP spending, tariff threats against Europe, market reactions, and the upcoming USMCA review.
From meatpacking settlements to landmark NEPA rulings, Roger McEowen outlines the top legal developments in 2025 that will shape agriculture in the years ahead.
Alan Bjerga with the National Milk Producers Federation joined us to review new policies and regulations supporting the dairy industry and what they mean for the year ahead.